409
FXUS63 KGRR 101140
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
640 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wintry Mix to All Snow this Morning

- Snow Chances into the Weekend and Arctic Air

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

- Wintry Mix to All Snow this Morning

Snow continues along and north of I-96 this morning with rain
toward the I-94 corridor where temperatures are warmer. A dry slot
is beginning to work into the area this morning with areas along
and south of I-96 seeing lighter precipitation and dry breaks.
This lull is expected to last until mid to late morning as the
deformation zone shifts south bringing with it another burst of
snow with rates around a quarter of an inch per hour. An
additional 1 to 3 inches is expected along the I-96 corridor with
2 to 4 inches north of M-46.

As the deformation axis shifts south of the area this afternoon
lake effect snow will pick up. An additional inch or two is
possible in Ottawa, Allegan, and Van Buren Counties with an inch
or less elsewhere along the lakeshore into Thursday morning.

- Snow Chances into the Weekend and Arctic Air

Within the northwest flow we`ll see additional clipper systems
move through, however western Michigan will be on the edge of
accumulating snow with these systems Thursday night into Friday
and Saturday night into Sunday. Therefore accumulations are light.
We`ll need to see a northward trend in these systems for higher
amounts.

With these clippers Arctic air will move in Friday through
weekended. This will aid in lake effect snow showers impacting the
area. 925mb temperatures will be in the dendritic growth zone and
the inversion will limit the depth of showers limiting amounts.
Highs are only expected to be in the teens this weekend with lows
in the single digits. Any snow with these temperatures will cause
slick conditions. Warmer temperatures move in next week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 640 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

MVFR to IFR conditions are expected today with mainly IFR
conditions through 18Z. Snow to the north will work its way south
this morning dropping visibilities in the 1 to 3 SM range with
additional snow accumulations up to an inch possible.

Winds will shift to the north this morning with gusts around 25
knots. Ceilings will gradually rise this afternoon to MVFR and
then scatter out for inland areas. Lake effect snow may impact MKG
and AZO this evening into Thursday morning. Additional
accumulations under an inch are expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Southwest gales are winding down but northwest gales will build
from north to south this morning and afternoon. Winds drop to
small craft advisory levels this evening. Wave heights of 8 to 12
feet are expected into tonight. Winds and waves will gradually
subside on Thursday. Friday night into Saturday will bring another
period of hazardous winds and waves as a cold front moves through
the Great Lakes Region.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>847.
     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST this morning for LMZ848-849.
     Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ848-849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...RAH