319
FXUS63 KGRR 050541
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
141 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warmth gives way to increasing chance of rain by late Monday

- Frost/Freeze conditions for mid-week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

- Warmth gives way to increasing chance of rain by late Monday

Upper ridging and southwest flow persists today into Monday with
850 mb temps around 15-16C and highs in the 80s. Winds will pick
up today as surface pressure gradient tightens. Height falls
occur on Monday as low level moisture return increases ahead of an
advancing western CONUS trough, with deep moisture streaming up
from the Gulf. A cold front is expected to focus showers and a
few thunderstorms Monday evening into Tuesday morning.

Instability is limited but forecast wind profiles show 30 knots of
unidirectional deep layer shear and suggest linear convection is
possible along/ahead of the front Monday evening. The front
clears Lower Michigan Tuesday night with dry northerly flow as
high pressure builds in.

- Frost/Freeze conditions for mid-week

As the climatological end of the growing season approaches next
week will see frost by Wednesday morning with a better chance for
frost and freezing conditions Thursday morning as the surface
ridge axis moves across Lower Michigan.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR conditions will continue through Sunday evening. Winds will be
on the increase today with southwest winds gusting over 20 knots
at times this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 141 AM EDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Winds and waves will be hazardous to small craft through Monday. A
cold front will move through MOnday night into Tuesday morning
with the potential for a few lightning strikes, then north winds
will increase Tuesday afternoon as high pressure builds in, with
some gusts over 20 knots during the afternoon and evening.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Beach Hazards Statement from 10 AM EDT this morning through
     Monday afternoon for MIZ037-043-050-056.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 5 PM EDT Monday
     for LMZ845>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Ostuno
MARINE...Ostuno