278
FXUS63 KGRR 101734
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1234 PM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wintry Mix to All Snow this Morning

- Snow Chances into the Weekend and Arctic Air

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

- Wintry Mix to All Snow this Morning

Snow continues along and north of I-96 this morning with rain
toward the I-94 corridor where temperatures are warmer. A dry slot
is beginning to work into the area this morning with areas along
and south of I-96 seeing lighter precipitation and dry breaks.
This lull is expected to last until mid to late morning as the
deformation zone shifts south bringing with it another burst of
snow with rates around a quarter of an inch per hour. An
additional 1 to 3 inches is expected along the I-96 corridor with
2 to 4 inches north of M-46.

As the deformation axis shifts south of the area this afternoon
lake effect snow will pick up. An additional inch or two is
possible in Ottawa, Allegan, and Van Buren Counties with an inch
or less elsewhere along the lakeshore into Thursday morning.

- Snow Chances into the Weekend and Arctic Air

Within the northwest flow we`ll see additional clipper systems
move through, however western Michigan will be on the edge of
accumulating snow with these systems Thursday night into Friday
and Saturday night into Sunday. Therefore accumulations are light.
We`ll need to see a northward trend in these systems for higher
amounts.

With these clippers Arctic air will move in Friday through
weekended. This will aid in lake effect snow showers impacting the
area. 925mb temperatures will be in the dendritic growth zone and
the inversion will limit the depth of showers limiting amounts.
Highs are only expected to be in the teens this weekend with lows
in the single digits. Any snow with these temperatures will cause
slick conditions. Warmer temperatures move in next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1237 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

The frontal band of snow showers will continue to move to the
southeast as the day progresses. Widespread IFR cigs and vsbys in
snow showers will continue into the afternoon. The cold front is
moving in from the northwest which will allow for dry
northwesterly flow to overtake the region this afternoon. Cigs and
vsbys will improve this afternoon beginning from thE NW to the SE
from MKG and GRR then followed by LAN, AZO, BTL and then lastly
JXN. This should occur beginning from around 18Z until 22Z.
Ceilings and visibilities will improve behind the front with a
period of MVFR between 22Z until 03Z. After 03Z VFR conditions
will then infiltrate as skies improve from NW to SE. There is the
potential for post frontal snow showers this evening which could
bring MVFR vsbys and cigs to MKG. There also is the potential for
some MVFR cigs tomorrow between 12Z and 18Z.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 333 AM EST Wed Dec 10 2025

Southwest gales are winding down but northwest gales will build
from north to south this morning and afternoon. Winds drop to
small craft advisory levels this evening. Wave heights of 8 to 12
feet are expected into tonight. Winds and waves will gradually
subside on Thursday. Friday night into Saturday will bring another
period of hazardous winds and waves as a cold front moves through
the Great Lakes Region.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     MIZ037>040-043>046-050>052-056>059.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 7 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...Ceru/RAH
MARINE...RAH