707
FXUS63 KGRR 181716
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1216 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wintry Mix Today

- Chance for Rain Thursday into Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 AM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

- Wintry Mix Today

Our round of wintry weather today is currently expanding from
Wisconsin into southern Lake Michigan and tied to the 700mb
frontogenesis and 500 mb positive vorticity advection. Forecast
remains on track for this to move into southwest Michigan in the
next few hours with South Haven already observing rain.

Our best lift will be through early to mid morning with this area
700 mb frontogenesis. 925mb to 850mb temperatures are currently
around 0C which you can also see reflected on the surface
temperatures. Depending on where you are in this temperature
profile will determine the precipitation type you see. Initially
expecting rain in southwest Michigan with a transition to snow
to the northeast. As the low to mid level temperature profile
adjusts we could see more of a rain/snow/sleet mix. At this time
freezing rain is limited as ground temperatures are still warm,
and with the cloud cover increasing road temperatures have also
increased to around 3 degrees or so warmer than the air
temperature. The better chances are with elevated surfaces like
bridges and overpasses that will be closer to the air
temperature. If we see a good burst of sleet that could also drop
surface temperatures creating slick conditions. Any snow
accumulations are expected to be less than an inch. Overall there
could be some slick spots for the morning commute with the wintry
mix, make sure to give yourself a little extra time this morning.

As we head into the afternoon we could see more of a transition to
rain across much of the area as we lose cloud ice. Showers will
clear during the late afternoon and early evening with dry
conditions expected overnight into Wednesday morning.

- Chance for Rain Thursday into Friday

Temperatures will warm through the week with a return to the 50s
Thursday into Friday. However that will bring a chance for rain
Thursday night through Friday morning. Precipitation amounts will
be determined on low position, but at this time the best QPF
remains north and southward of Lower Michigan. Temperatures will
continue to trend around to just above normal through the end of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1216 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

Ongoing VFR conditions will deteriorate to MVFR to IFR over the
next few hours. For MKG, GRR, and LAN, slightly cooler
temperatures may support a MVFR rain/snow mix in addition to
ceilings falling to MVFR. For AZO, BTL, and JXN precipitation
should be mainly rain. However, upstream observations suggest a
period of IFR ceilings are likely this afternoon/evening.
Conditions will improve slowly this evening into the overnight
hours, as drier air moves in, with all terminals reaching VFR by
early Wednesday morning.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ceru/RAH
AVIATION...Thomas