435
FXUS63 KGRR 220811
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
311 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain Moves in Monday Night

- Colder with Snow Showers by Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

- Rain Moves in Monday Night

Shortwave trough axis moves through the Great Lakes today but
moisture and lift is displaced well off to the north of the
forecast area and dry weather continues into Monday. A Southern
PLains low tracks into Lower Michigan with rain arriving Monday
night into Tuesday. This is quickly followed by a northern stream
shortwave trough amplifying into a closed upper low and full
latitude troughing by Wednesday,

- Colder with Snow Showers by Wednesday

Colder air wraps in behind the low with 850mb temps falling below
-10C on Wednesday into Thanksgiving.Broad cyclonic flow along with
 inversion heights near 8 kft will allow snow showers to develop
 and these should penetrate far inland given the west- northwest
 flow and mean boundary layer winds near 40 mph. SNow showers
 should diminish by Friday as heights rise with the upper trough
 shifting east. Snow amounts uncertain at this range but it
 appears to be cold enough for snow to accumulate on roads and
 affect travel from Wednesday to Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1136 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

Mid and high clouds were abundant over the area this evening, and
the mid clouds are on their way out of the area, after affecting
the I-94 terminals. We will see some high clouds persist at all
sites except KMKG. There, we are seeing some clouds between
3000-3500 ft agl coming in off of Lake Michigan.

The clouds at KMKG will be around a good portion of this forecast
period. Can not even rule out some of these clouds going down to
MVFR. Elsewhere, high clouds will continue, with mid clouds moving
back in tomorrow afternoon. Ceilings are likely to drop right at
the end of this forecast period, or more likely just after the
end.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...NJJ