623
FXUS63 KGRR 290618
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
218 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain Showers Today

- Slight Chances (20 to 30 percent) for Rain This Weekend

- Unsettled Pattern Next Week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

- Rain Showers Today

A shortwave trough is currently moving into the area bringing
scattered rain showers. Most unstable CAPE values will increase
into this morning around a couple hundred J/kg. Therefore can`t
rule out some isolated thunder. Ahead of the cold front, southwest
winds will pick up with gusts around 25 mph this morning and early
afternoon. As the front moves through late this morning and
afternoon skies will clear with lighter northwest winds.

Temperatures tonight will drop into the 30s with a chance for
temperatures below freezing along and north of US-10. Friday dry
conditions are expected with highs only in the mid 50s to low 60s.

- Slight Chances (20 to 30 percent) for Rain This Weekend

A subtle feature may clip southwest Michigan Saturday bringing
some slight chances (20 to 30 percent) for rain. What ensemble
members show rain keep any amounts light (less than a tenth of an
inch). Timing wise, rain (if it occurs) looks to be during the
morning and afternoon.

Sunday is trending drier in the NBM with questionable low level
moisture and better mid level moisture. Will still be on the
lookout for some showers, but dry air toward the surface may delay
any additional rainfall.

- Unsettled Pattern Next Week

Taking another look at the long range ensembles and cluster
analysis, there continues to be differences in the overall
synoptic pattern next week. Monday is trending drier, with more
members focusing on Tuesday for rainfall. Chances then continue
through the rest of the week with trough moving through the
Plains. Chances will be tied to the timing of this feature and how
it evolves. This trough will move onshore Sunday and with better
sampling more details should become clearer.

Within the largely southerly flow next week temperatures will
remain mild for this time of year with highs in the 60s and lows
in the 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

An approaching front will bring southwest winds gusting around 20
knots, rain showers, and MVFR ceilings. Thunder cannot be ruled
out, however confidence is not high enough to include in the TAFs
at this time. Showers are currently moving into the KLDM and
shortly KMKG area and will continue to track east. Showers may
decrease in coverage mid morning, before picking back up during
the late morning and afternoon as the front pushes through. This
afternoon we`ll see a period of MVFR ceilings. Some guidance shows
the potential for low MVFR and IFR ceilings (10 to 20 percent
chance).

As the front clears TAF sites this afternoon 18-22Z, light
northwest winds will move in along with clear skies which will
continue overnight into Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 217 AM EDT Thu Oct 29 2026

Southwest winds gusting around 20 to 25 knots have been observed
largely north of South Haven. Winds will continue to build before
the front moves through later this morning and early afternoon.
Wave heights around 3 to 5 feet are expected with 4 foot waves
remaining north of South Haven. Waves drop below 4 feet this
afternoon but we could see winds and waves approach Small Craft
Advisory levels for a brief period tonight.

Winds and waves are expected to remain below Advisory conditions
Friday into next week.



&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
     LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...RAH