457
FXUS63 KGRR 222247
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
547 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain Monday night and Tuesday

- Colder Wednesday into the weekend, rain then snow showers

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

- Rain Monday night and Tuesday

Mid/high clouds associated with a weak cold front are moving
across the state this afternoon. This front will move across the
cwa after midnight. Despite the front accompanied by a short wave,
the system is moisture starved and will move through dry. Quite a
bit of sunshine and highs around 50 are expected Sunday.

The next chance of precipitation will arrive Monday night. Models
have been consistent in showing a phasing of a southern stream and
northern stream low over the Great Lakes. Abundant moisture will
be drawn north from the Gulf and chances for rain are high (90+
percent).

The warm part of the system will pass through Monday night and
Tuesday resulting in all rain. The cold front follows Tuesday
night along with the upper short wave.

- Colder Wednesday into the weekend, rain then snow showers

H8 temperatures fall from +6c 06 Wednesday to -6c by 18z
Wednesday. Rain showers will turn to snow showers during the day.
Surface temperatures will likely remain in the mid to upper 30s
Wednesday which will limit any snowfall accumulations on roadways.
However, that`ll change Wednesday night as surface temperatures
fall into the mid 20s.

A decent setup for some lake effect snow will develop
Thursday/Thursday night with northwest boundary layer winds, lift
from the upper trough, and plenty of over-lake instability
courtesy of lake delta t`s around 20. The lake effect potential
will diminish Friday as high pressure builds into the western
Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 547 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Scattered light showers will cross the terminals over the next few
hours. Mainly virga is expected given a dry moisture profile,
however cannot rule out a few showers reaching the ground.
Ceilings in the 7-10kft range are expected with the passage of a
warm front before scattering out by early morning Sunday. There
are weak signals (20-30 percent) of MVFR cigs developing with a
cold frontal passage late tonight through early morning Monday for
a few hours, highest at LAN and JXN. Given that MVFR ceilings are
favored to stay north and east of the terminals will keep FEW to
SCT for that cloud layer with this issuance. Any clouds lift
quickly Sunday morning. A period of LLWS is forecast at all
terminals, except MKG where mixing is better, for a few hours as
the atmosphere decouples with winds around 40 kts at 2kft. Winds
will also change from southerly now to west or northwesterly by
daybreak with the frontal passages. Gusts to 20-25 knots are
expected at MKG.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Thomas