158
FXUS63 KGRR 031052
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
652 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry Weather Continues Through Thursday

- Showers and Storms Possible Friday and Saturday

- Warm and Dry into next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

- Dry Weather Continues Through Thursday

An Omega block high will to dominate the weather pattern through
Thursday. A surface high will slowly drift southward as a
strengthening upper level low moves along the US and Canada
border. Warm and dry weather with light winds will continue
through this timeframe.

- Showers and Storms Possible Friday and Saturday

 The above mentioned upper level low will erode the high pressure
and force it to slink to the southeast. The upper level pattern
will be fairly flat with a mid and low level ribbon of moisture.
That ribbon will finally make its way through Lower Michigan
Friday. Max diurnal temps will continue to peak into the 80s on
Friday. That warm air, with some instability and moisture should
allow for showers and storms Friday afternoon into the evening
hours. Models remain consistent. While the dry lower levels will
take a bit to moisten up, the consistent flow should allow for
showers through the evening. However, Saturday will be the better
day for storms. There remains some questions on timing but given
the mid range models, there will be a more amplified upper level
short wave. That trough will dig into the Great lakes and the mid
and lower levels could tap into instability from a long wave
trough emanating from a low sitting along the eastern seaboard of
Canada. Latest models show decent MUCAPE Saturday afternoon. This
is a good indicator for potential storm growth, so strong to
severe thunderstorms on Saturday will be possible. As stated in
previous discussions, the area of most concern will be southern
Lower Michigan. There remains questions of timing and position of
the LLJ through this timeframe and the depth of the moisture
aloft.

- Warm and Dry into next week

 The break in the warm and dry pattern will be short with more
high pressure returning Sunday through the first half of the week.
Another Omega block high will build over the Great lakes region.
That high will keep any advancing systems at bay, forcing any
incoming moisture around the region. It will also keep
temperatures in the mid to upper 80s, which is around 10 degrees
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 652 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

High pressure will allow VFR to dominate the pattern through the
forecast period. Winds will shift this evening but overall speed
will be less than 10 kts. Next chance for reducing conditions will
be Friday afternoon/evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

Fair winds and waves in high pressure will continue into Thursday. Winds
will steadily ramp up from Thursday into Friday with 20-30 knot
winds likely by Friday out of the southwest. Sub advisory
conditions are expected tonight through at least Thursday morning.
Thursday afternoon into Friday conditions will increase to
advisory. Winds and waves could flirt with gales by Friday
evening.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...Ceru
MARINE...Ceru