115
FXUS63 KGRR 032323
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
623 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chance of light rain north Tuesday night

- Rain late week, then rain/snow during the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 218 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

- Chance of light rain north Tuesday night

Model trends have largely pushed the next system farther north
closer to the Straits late Tuesday. Most of the cwa will see a
20-30 percent chance of light rain Tuesday night and Wednesday;
the US-10 corridor is a bit higher at 35-45 percent. Either way,
QPF is negligible...a hundredth or two.

Once the system moves east, sunshine will return Wednesday
afternoon. South winds ahead of the weak low will push
temperatures into the mid to upper 50s Tue/Wed.

- Rain late week, then rain/snow during the weekend

The next system will roll through Friday bringing an 85-100
percent chance of rain. The precipitation with Friday`s cold front
will be all rain. The front will be accompanied by a strong short
wave moving across the central Great Lakes. QPF isn`t too much
though...roughly a 25-35 percent chance of a half inch of rain
west of US-131 and 10-20 percent chance east of there.

Following quickly on the heels of the cold front will be another
clipper type system. This system will arrive late Saturday after
colder air is already in place from the Friday system. The track
of the system by both the ECMWF and GFS is near the MI/IN border
Saturday night. Operational GFS gives significant snow to the
southern cwa with this system but that will likely change as the
weekend gets closer. The GFS ensemble mean is around an inch at
GRR and so are the ECMWF and Canadian ensemble means. However,
each model has a few ensemble members producing a few inches of
snow.

The low moving across southern Lower Saturday night will have a
series of short waves dig an upper trough behind it, which will
help to draw down colder air. Thus, once the synoptic
precipitation diminishes, some lake effect snow showers will
develop late in the weekend as h8 temps around -10c flow across
the lake.

High temperatures over the weekend will be in the lower to mid 40s
and around 40 next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 619 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

LLWS will be a threat for the next few hours before diminishing
after 03-04z. This occurs as surface wind speeds have come down
across the region but winds aloft are still strong. Otherwise,
just some SCT/BKN high clouds possible on Tuesday with lighter
winds expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 218 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

We`ve tweaked the timing of the gale warning to end at 6 pm. A
small craft advisory will begin at 6 pm and continue through mid
morning Tuesday.

So far, winds at the lake shore have topped out around 30 knots
(Big Sable) and have been in the 25-30 knot range elsewhere.
Models suggest some mixing yet into the 35 knot range for a few
more hours but that`s not certain. Waves will slowly decrease
overnight.

South flow will increase Tuesday afternoon/evening as low pressure
over the upper Midwest develops and another small craft advisory
may be needed.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Hoving
MARINE...04