989
FXUS63 KGRR 032339
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
639 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
- Mixed Precipitation Possible Sunday Night into Monday Morning

- Mainly Rain Expected Tuesday into Tuesday Night

- Warmer with Periods of Rain Thursday/Friday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

- Mixed Precipitation Possible Sunday Night into Monday Morning

Quiet weather is expected tonight into Sunday as ridging builds
into the region. Precipitation will come to an end for the most
part this evening. Some light lake effect snow is possible near
Lake Michigan this evening, but this will mainly be flurries.

Focus will be on a warm air advection precipitation event that
looks to move through the area mainly on Sunday night. This
precipitation event has trended a bit quicker. A bit of light
precipitation may linger into Monday morning though. The
precipitation will mainly be snow and largely affect Central Lower
Michigan as has been the thinking for several days. There is a
warm nose aloft that will allow for some freezing precipitation
potential along the southern edge of the precipitation field near
I-96 and possibly points to the south. Late Sunday night surface
temperatures will still be holding into the 20s F with 850mb air
that is allowing for some melting aloft (temperatures of +1 to
+2C). Overall not expecting too much of an impact as the snow
across Central Lower Michigan will be light, 1-2 inches, and the
zone of mixed precipitation amounts will be light as well with
liquid equivalent of only a few hundredths possible. We will be
monitoring this time frame for trends in both snow and freezing
precipitation amounts.

- Mainly Rain Expected Tuesday into Tuesday Night

The flow will have transitioned to more zonal in nature by this
time and as such 850mb temperatures will have warmed to above
freezing. A surface low moving through the area driven by a mid
level shortwave will bring periods of light rain to the area.
Rainfall amounts per the operational GFS and ECMWF will range from
0.10 to 0.50 inches.

- Warmer with Periods of Rain Thursday/Friday

By the end of the week we will have moved into a southwest flow
regime. Temperatures have cooled some from yesterdays model runs
during this time frame. Highs now look to range more from around
40 near U.S. 10 to the middle 40s along I-94. Still, conditions
will be warm enough for rain. Periods of rain are expected as a
couple of areas of low pressure move through the region. Rainfall
from this multi day event looks to be heavier with both the GFS
and ECWMF showing swaths over 1.00 inch in our area. It will be a
cold rain with a melting snowpack giving the area more of a look
of late spring than deep winter.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 642 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

Northwest flow has overtaken behind the weak front and any snow
showers continue to dwindle. The worse snow showers are making
their way eastward and will end over the next few hours.  MVFR is
possible at most TAF sites through 06Z but with dry air
infiltrating, vsbys should continue to improve
However, Cigs will be more persistent. AZO, BTL and JXN should
see periods of MVFR develop towards Sunday morning and lingering
until late Sunday afternoon. There is a good trend of a period of
VFR cigs that should develop at inland sites late Sunday morning
and erode on cigs westward as the day continues.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...Ceru