023
FXUS63 KGRR 012357
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
657 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Small rain chances through Tue; Rain Likely Tue night/Wed

- Cooler with rain chances Thu-Fri

- Dry Saturday with rain chances increasing Sun

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 233 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

- Small rain chances through Tue; Rain Likely Tue night/Wed

Another day of mostly cloud cover for the area today. Regional radar
imagery looks a bit more ominous than reality with a short wave
moving through. This is the case with plenty of echoes present, but
clouds below 10k ft are few and far between. We will see the short
wave move out tonight, and short wave and long wave ridging will
build over the area.

Monday will see another day with plenty of cloud cover as low level
and upper level moisture moves in. Forecast soundings and moisture X-
sections indicate a lack of clouds/moisture in the mid levels with
about a 6-8k dry layer in between. Can not rule out a sprinkle, but
there is really no forcing most of the day. We do see a better low
level jet set up late in the day and Monday night that will be
focused on the northern portion of the forecast area. This will
result in some showers for Central Lower.

Most of Tuesday will be mostly dry across the area. We see the
showers Monday move to the north, and we will be waiting for the
moisture axis ahead of the incoming long wave trough and cold front.
Another period of ridging will be in place most of the day, with the
area in the warm sector. 850 mb temps of around +13C will support
highs in the 70s once again.

The best chance of rain with this entire system will come overnight
Tuesday night into Wednesday. We see the nose of a 50 knots low
level jet set its sights on the forecast area. In addition to the
rain, there looks to be just a enough instability for a rumble of
thunder late Tuesday night/Wednesday morning just ahead of the
front. Sfc based and elevated lifted indices are slightly negative
at this time. The front will move through mostly by dark Wednesday
evening.

- Cooler with rain chances Thu-Fri

We will see a break in the rain chances Wednesday night behind the
cold front as we end up under the dry slot. This will cool off the
temperatures a bit too, but not significantly yet. The upper low
will settle over the area by Thursday, bringing with it better deep
layer instability and cyclonic flow along with short waves. This
will bring showery weather off and on for Thursday and much of
Friday, with highs dropping back into the 50s. Lake effect rain
showers will also be possible with 850 mb temps dropping to almost
0C, bringing delta t`s to the mid teens C.

- Dry Saturday with rain chances increasing Sun

The upper jet core will shift out of the area Friday evening,
bringing anti-cyclonic flow back to the area. The showers should
taper off as the colder air aloft also moves out of the area. We are
looking at a dry and cool day on Saturday right now as ridging
building in. There is pretty good agreement that another short wave
will be diving down from the NW on Sunday, bringing more chances for
rain to the region, and reinforcing colder air.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 649 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

VFR conditions will continue to dominate the pattern through the
first half of the TAF period. A approaching weather system will
bring some mid to low level moisture tomorrow morning. This
should bring MVFR cigs late tomorrow morning, early tomorrow
afternoon. Expect MVFR cigs at the southern TAF sites of JXN, AZO
and BTL between 14Z at 18Z. Ceilings will continue to drop
throughout the day. Latest guidance has MVFR cigs at all TAF sites
by 19Z. As the system moves through there is an increasing
probability for cigs to get near IFR, mainly after 22Z at JXN, AZO
and BTL. Current guidance keeps all rain to the west currently
but these chances could increase after 22Z tomorrow.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
     LMZ844>846.
     Small Craft Advisory from 9 AM Monday to 7 PM EST Tuesday for
     LMZ847>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...NJJ
AVIATION...Ceru