135
FXUS63 KGRR 182325
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
625 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Lingering Showers Through This Evening

- Cloudy with chance of rain end of work week

- Warm and dry through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 330 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

- Lingering Showers this evening

A weather system continues to move eastward through the Midwest.
This system stems from a positively tilted barotropic upper level
low moving along the southern Great Lakes. Latest radar as of 3
PM has a slowly moving band of showers moving through central
Lower Michigan. Expect a mix of snow/rain/drizzle/sleet as
temperatures continue to drop behind the low this evening.
 This band has decent instability and fairly deep moisture for
this time of year so rates could be moderate at to heavy at times.
The DGZ is unsaturated so large snow growth is not expected. As
it is convective, periods of sleet are possible but since QPF is
sparse overall, only expecting light accumulations. The above
mentioned wave will shift through the Mid Atlantic as high
pressure with drier air moves over the Great Lakes Region late
tonight, into Wednesday. Wednesday morning will see cold, below
normal overnight lows due to clearing skies and downsloping, drier
air. Wednesday morning temps will range from the upper teens
along US 10 to the low 30s along the I 94 corridor.

- Cloudy with chance of rain end of work week

 Midweek will see zonal flow with a clipper type system moving
along the Canadian border. That system is still on pace to move
through Thursday night into Friday.
 The mid to low level long wave trough will extend through the
region from a low that will be moving through northern Ontario.
 The best moisture according to the latest ensembles will
bifurcate southern lower Michigan.
 So while there will be a chance for rain showers Thursday into
Friday, chances are trending downward and should be scattered at
best.

- Warm and dry through the weekend

 Temperatures are trending warmer overall through the weekend and
into next week. Max and min temps are trending around 5 degrees
above normal with zonal flow through CONUS. Highs should in the
50s.
 Our sights then shift to a potential pattern chance mid to late
next week. Based on mid to long range patterns, there is the
potential for a rain event mid next week with a change to a
colder, potentially snowier pattern late next week. However, a lot
can change in that timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM EST Tue Nov 18 2025

A complex aviation forecast exists for the first half of the TAF
period. Ceilings are quite variable across West Michigan ranging
from VFR for GRR, LAN, and MKG to the north, to LIFR at AZO, BTL,
and JXN. For the northern terminals (MKG, GRR, and LAN),
conditions are VFR now. However, upstream obs and satellite trends
support a period of MVFR ceilings developing later Tuesday
evening as shown in several suites of guidance. Ceilings will then
increase in the 04-06z timeframe to VFR. For the southern
terminals (AZO, BTL, and JXN), moisture pooling near I94 has
allowed LIFR ceilings to develop along with MVFR fog. Conditions
will likely bounce between IFR and LIFR over the next several
hours before drier air begins to slowly trend ceilings up. The
main uncertainty at this point is the potential for another period
of IFR cigs to develop in the 06-10z timeframe. IFR probabilities
are in the 30-40% range so have elected to highlight the
potential with a SCT group with this issuance. Ceilings then climb
above VFR after 12z.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ceru
AVIATION...Thomas