859
FXUS63 KGRR 031133
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
633 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Morning Showers, then Mostly Dry through Thursday

- Turning Colder and Unsettled Friday into the Weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 336 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

- Morning Showers, then Mostly Dry through Thursday

Rain is moving through this morning with the shortwave trough and
mid level moisture axis. Dry conditions return 6AM to 10AM from
west to east as dry air quickly moves in aloft. Winds will be
breezy with southwest winds initially this morning gusting around
30 to 35 mph and then turn to the northwest with the front this
afternoon. Areas along the lakeshore mainly north of Muskegon
could see gusts to 40 mph.

Increasing heights and subsidence will bring a period of dry
conditions through Tuesday. Cloud cover is expected to increase
Tuesday night with the low level jet and warm air advection
providing some lift ahead of the next shortwave. However the
overall track of the low pressure system has trended northward
along with the better moisture and dry air will limit our rain
chances Tuesday night into Wednesday (20 to 30 percent). This is
also seen in the cluster analysis with most members keeping the
area dry through Thursday.

- Turning Colder and Unsettled Friday into the Weekend

As we head into Friday and the weekend the upper level pattern
becomes more active. Cluster analysis is in agreement in the
overall timing and depth of the shortwave trough moving through
Thursday night into Friday. This is leading to a higher percent
chance for rain (60 to 80 percent) in the NBM ensemble forecast.
However there is still uncertainty with exact amounts as the 10th
to 90th percentile spread is less than a tenth of an inch to
around an inch across the area.

The upper level low that will bring the shortwave through Friday
will linger over the Hudson Bay area before moving south into the
Great Lakes region. This will keep a cooler air mass in place
along with additional rounds of lift through the weekend.
Rain is likely through Saturday, but depending on the overall
temperature profile that develops we could see our first
snowflakes of the season Saturday night into Monday. The cluster
analysis however varies into several solutions. Depending on the
solution the air mass may be colder or warmer which would impact
any chances for snow. Either way we should see the coldest air
yet this season with NBM ensemble probabilities of high
temperatures less than 40 degrees in the 40 to 60 percent range
across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 633 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

The back edge of the rain and clouds is moving into Ludington
currently and will continue to track east this morning exiting the
area around 14Z. Ceilings may briefly drop to 2000 feet at GRR
otherwise VFR conditions are expected. Gusty southwest winds will
turn to the northwest behind the front later this morning and
afternoon with gusts remaining around 25 to 30 knots through the
day. Winds become lighter around 00Z resulting in a brief period
of low level wind shear through about 6Z with the stronger winds
aloft.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 336 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Southwest gales continue this morning before a lull during the
late morning and early afternoon before northwest winds build
behind the front. There is higher confidence in persistent gales
north of Grand Haven. South of Grand Haven gales could be more
isolated. Wave heights peak this morning in the 7 to 11 ft range
with 6 to 9 foot waves expected into this evening. High pressure
moving in tonight into Tuesday will cause winds wand waves to
decrease with wave heights dropping below 4 feet Tuesday morning.

Winds and waves build again Tuesday night into Wednesday as
another low pressure system tracks through the Great Lakes with
gusty southwest winds Tuesday night becoming northwesterly
Wednesday.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...RAH
AVIATION...RAH
MARINE...RAH