508
FXUS63 KGRR 221937
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
237 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain Monday night and Tuesday

- Colder Wednesday into the weekend, rain then snow showers



&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

- Rain Monday night and Tuesday

Mid/high clouds associated with a weak cold front are moving
across the state this afternoon. This front will move across the
cwa after midnight. Despite the front accompanied by a short wave,
the system is moisture starved and will move through dry. Quite a
bit of sunshine and highs around 50 are expected Sunday.

The next chance of precipitation will arrive Monday night. Models
have been consistent in showing a phasing of a southern stream and
northern stream low over the Great Lakes. Abundant moisture will
be drawn north from the Gulf and chances for rain are high (90+
percent).

The warm part of the system will pass through Monday night and
Tuesday resulting in all rain. The cold front follows Tuesday
night along with the upper short wave.

- Colder Wednesday into the weekend, rain then snow showers

H8 temperatures fall from +6c 06 Wednesday to -6c by 18z
Wednesday. Rain showers will turn to snow showers during the day.
Surface temperatures will likely remain in the mid to upper 30s
Wednesday which will limit any snowfall accumulations on roadways.
However, that`ll change Wednesday night as surface temperatures
fall into the mid 20s.

A decent setup for some lake effect snow will develop
Thursday/Thursday night with northwest boundary layer winds, lift
from the upper trough, and plenty of over-lake instability
courtesy of lake delta t`s around 20. The lake effect potential
will diminish Friday as high pressure builds into the western
Great Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Ongoing cirrus deck will thicken and lower to 7-10kft through the
day as a warm frontal followed by cold frontal passage occurs.
Late tonight into early Sunday morning, a low (20-30%) chance of
MVFR ceilings for a few hours behind the cold frontal passage.
Will include restrictions in TAFs in later packages if confidence
increases. Also, increasing winds to around 30 knots at 2kft will
lead to conditions approaching, but not quite reaching, LLWS
criteria tonight. South to southwest winds tonight will veer to
westerly by Sunday morning, increasing to around 10 knots. Gusts
of 20-25 knots are possible at MKG.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Sunday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...Thomas