419
FXUS63 KGRR 211730
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1230 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly Dry through the Weekend

- Pattern change to cold next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 256 AM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

- Mostly Dry through the Weekend

Lower Michigan is in between northern and southern stream low
pressure today. A trailing cold front moves through early today
with low level moisture and areas of drizzle peeling off to the
east this morning. A northern stream shortwave trough axis moves
through Saturday night, but favorable jet dynamics are north of
the forecast area and once again the bulk of the precip misses
southwest Lower Michigan.

- Pattern change to cold next week

Phasing of the northern and southern streams eventually happens
early next week with cyclogenesis across the Northern Plains into
Canada and a trailing front/trough concentrating an area of rain
moving through Lower Michigan on Tuesday. A longwave trough in the
wake of this low will bring a drop in temperatures for the middle
of next week. Cyclonic flow with a potential shortwave trough
axis rotating through could bring lake effect snow showers by the
middle of the week into Thanksgiving.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM EST Fri Nov 21 2025

TAF sites are generally MVFR with cigs in the 2-3kft range at
present. Ceilings will lift and mix out over the next few hours
with all sites climbing to VFR by mid afternoon. VFR conditions
then continue through the end of the TAF period with RH progs
showing FEW to SCT clouds around 3kft possible at the western
terminals after 12z Saturday. Winds will be near 10 knots today,
becoming light and variable tonight into Saturday.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Thomas