522
FXUS63 KGRR 020704
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
304 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain ends, then clearing

- Frost tonight, Sunday night, Monday night

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

- Rain ends, then clearing

Local radar shows light rain gradually ending from north to
south early this morning as drier air begins to flow in behind a
cold front that has just passed through the state. Overall, the
rain was a good soaker and we won`t see much in the way of
precipitation through next week.

IR loop shows the back edge of the thick higher cloud deck moving
across northern Lake MI and mostly clear skies over Wisconsin.
We`ll see clearing occur this morning leading to mostly sunny
skies by this afternoon.

- Frost tonight, Sunday night, Monday night

A shot of cooler air behind the departing cold front, coupled with
light winds and clear skies tonight will enable good radiational
cooling conditions. We`re looking at a frost potential over the
northern cwa and we`ve issued a frost advisory for several
counties of the northern two rows of counties, where temperatures
will fall into the lower to mid 30s. It`s possible that a few low
lying areas fall below freezing, but it`s not clear it will be
widespread.

As the high drifts east through Saturday, southwest winds will
develop and temperatures will climb from highs in the mid 60s
today and Saturday to upper 60s Sunday. A secondary cold front
will move across the state Sunday afternoon and send h8
temperatures from 10c down to 0c by Monday morning. Frost is again
possible over interior portions of the northern two rows of
counties. However, the coldest night will be Monday night.
Widespread frost is possible across the entire cwa and sub
freezing temperatures over the northern row of counties in the
cwa; a freeze warning may be needed there Monday night.

Temperatures will warm into the upper 60s Tuesday through Friday
next week. Dewpoints in the 40s and 40s will make for comfortable
fall conditions.

 &&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 137 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Light rain continues at the terminals, but the back edge is about
to move across MKG. It will be a few more hours before rain ends
at JXN.

Latest guidance suggests a fairly quick rise in ceilings once the
rain ends with all of the terminals becoming VFR by mid morning.
Given the rainfall of the past couple of days, clearing skies
tonight and light winds may produce some fog after 06z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

No changes to the small craft advisory. Increasing north winds
behind a cold front will boost waves to 2 to 5 fee today before
diminishing this evening.

Increasing southwest winds early Sunday ahead of the next cold
front may necessitate another small craft advisory then.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Frost Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Saturday for
     MIZ038>040-044-045.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this
     evening for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...04
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04