Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
215 FXUS62 KGSP 091036 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 636 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Cool high pressure builds into the region through Friday bringing much cooler and below normal temperatures. A warming trend develops this weekend into early next week, with above normal temperatures returning late this weekend into the middle of next week. Dry conditions are expected to continue through at least the middle of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 1139 PM Wednesday: A surface cold front continues to drop across the area with much drier and cooler air quickly filtering in from the north. PWATs will continue to fall through the period to less than 0.5" by Friday morning with dewpoints well into the low 40s. Low-level thermal profiles will cool as well with cold advection lowering 850mb temperatures 6-8 C. The result will be a much more typical fall day today with highs in the mid 60s to low 70s. Overnight lows into Friday morning will subsequently fall into the low 40s to around 50, but will driven by advection as the boundary layer remains well mixed within a rather sharp surface pressure gradient as a 1035mb high settles over New England. Speaking of, the mixed boundary layer and strengthening pressure gradient between the New England high and a developing coastal low will keep gusty winds in place through the period, but well below advisory criteria. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 100 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Frost Possible Early Friday Morning Across Portions of the North Carolina Mountains 2) Below Normal Highs Return Friday with Warmer and Just Below Normal Highs on Saturday 3) Dry Weather Continues with Breezy Winds Lingering East of the Mountains Dry cold air damming sticks around Friday thanks to a sfc high centered over New England. The center of the sfc high gradually slides offshore into the western Atlantic Friday evening into daybreak Saturday before another area of sfc high pressure builds in from the north for the remainder of the short term. Meanwhile, a coastal low develops off the Southeast coast this weekend while gradually lifting northward towards the coastal Carolinas. The bulk of the moisture associated with the coastal low should remain south and east of the GSP CWA per most of the high-res and global models. However, both the 00Z HRRR and NAMNest show the potential for some light showers to develop on Friday ahead of the coastal low and the latest GFS is now showing the potential for precip to push into the southern SC Upstate and western NC Piedmont Saturday evening into Saturday night as the coastal low approaches the NC coast. Confidence on precip making it this far inland through the period remains low so kept dry NBM PoPs for now. Frost that manages to develop overnight Thursday will linger across portions of the northern NC mountains and for some locations west of the French Broad Valley Friday morning. Breezy N/NE winds east of the mountains will linger through the period, ranging from 15-25 mph. Highs on Friday will end up a few degrees cooler compared to Thursday, ending up ~4-6 degrees below normal. A warming trend begins Saturday, with highs ending up near normal to just below normal. Lows Friday night will end up just above normal, becoming 4-8 degrees above normal Saturday night. With warmer temps expected Friday nigh and Saturday night, any frost that develops should remain isolated to elevations above 4,000 ft the northern NC mountains. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 100 AM EDT Thursday... Key Messages: 1) Dry Weather Lingers through the Long Term 2) Warming Trend Continues through Early Next Week with Above Normal Temperatures Expected 3) Breezy Winds Expected Across Most Areas Each Day Coastal low off the Carolinas is expected to lift north or northeast through Monday night before pulling away from the East Coast Tuesday into Wednesday. Meanwhile, an area of dry sfc high pressure will build in from the north across the Deep South and the Southeast Sunday into Tuesday before another dry sfc high builds in across the central and eastern CONUS on Wednesday. Once again the latest GFS is showing precip making it to the eastern fringe of the forecast area on Sunday while the rest of the global models show precip remaining east of the forecast area. Thus, maintained dry NBM PoPs on Sunday for now with low confidence on whether moisture associated with the coastal low can make it that far west. The GFS then shows dry conditions (like the rest of the global models) Sunday night through at least the middle of next week so dry NBM PoPs look good for the rest of the long term. The warming trend will continue through Tuesday before a slight cooling trend begins Wednesday. Temps will end up ~3-6 degrees above normal Sunday into Sunday night, becoming several degrees above normal the rest of the period. Breezy winds will develop across most locations each day, ranging from 15-20 mph. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period as a cold front shifts south of the area. A VFR stratus deck across the Upstate will gradually lift/dissipate through the morning with the arrival of drier air from the north. Otherwise, winds will be gusty out of the northeast today with at least some gusts continuing this evening. Outlook: Drier conditions are expected to persist for the remainder of the week and into the weekend. Patchy morning fog/low stratus will be possible in the mountain valleys starting this weekend, otherwise VFR conditions are anticipated. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AR NEAR TERM...TW SHORT TERM...AR LONG TERM...AR AVIATION...TW