388
FXUS62 KGSP 130546
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
146 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will slowly drift offshore through mid week as dry
high pressure builds in across the region. This will allow for a
return of above normal temperatures through Wednesday. A backdoor
cold front drops across the area Thursday bringing a brief cool down
before temperatures warm again over the weekend. The next chance for
rain may come on Sunday as a potent system swings across the country.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 am EDT Monday: Stacked/occluding cyclone just off the SC
coast is forecast to finally accelerate to the east later today,
as "kicker" low travels from the northern Great Plains to Hudson`s
Bay. One last narrow band of deformation zone light rain/sprinkles
impacting the southeast corner of our CWA will shift east by
daybreak, while shield of stratocu is expected to steadily move
east and lift/scatter through the morning. As such, most locations
should see no worse than mostly sunny conditions by afternoon, with
increasing thickness values/rising heights allowing max temps to
warm to around 5 degrees above normal across much of the area. Less
cloud cover and the relative dryness of the air mass brought about
by N/NW low level flow along with decoupling surface winds are
expected to allow tonight`s lows to settle to near normal. The
better radiational cooling conditions should also pave the way
for more fog/low stratus in the mountain valleys Tue morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1142 PM Sunday: The synoptic pattern will become increasingly
amplified through mid week as an upper ridge builds from the
Southern Plains through the Mississippi Valley. Farther upstream, a
potent trough will be sliding across the Great Basin and lifting
through the Rockies while a northern stream trough drops across the
Great Lakes and into New England. Rising heights across the Southern
Appalachians on the eastern flank of the upper ridge will promote
warm temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s both Tuesday and
Wednesday. Otherwise, the forecast remains dry through the short
term.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1202 AM Monday: By Thursday, sprawling surface high pressure
dropping across the Great Lakes and into New England will send a
backdoor cold front through the area. This will in turn result in
temperatures falling back to or just below seasonal averages
Thursday and Friday. Heading into the weekend, the upper trough axis
is progged to traverse the Appalachians with a slight warmup on
Saturday. The forecast becomes much more interesting on Sunday as the
first in a series of potent troughs ejects across the Northern
Plains and across the Midwest into the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.
Forecast confidence quickly wanes, however, as considerable
differences in timing, location and evolution of the wave are
apparent across the suite of guidance. Rain chances may eventually
return to the area, so will leave the forecast in line with the
national model blend for now until there`s better agreement.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Lingering moisture associated with a cyclone
off the South Carolina coast is forecast to shift east through the
morning, with gradually clearing skies and lifting cigs expected
across the Terminal Forecast Area. MVFR/low VFR cigs are expected
to linger until around daybreak at KCLT and KHKY before scattering
and lifting by late morning. The most challenging aspect of this
forecast is assessing how widespread any fog/low stratus will be
in the mountain valleys...particularly in areas near KAVL. The
main issue is that the back edge of the clouds associated with
the coastal low is essentially right over the KAVL area. The
timing of when these clouds will scatter will be essential, as
earlier-than-anticipated clearing will result in higher potential
for fog/low stratus. For now, we have hedged our bets a bit with
a tempo for 3SM/SCT003...thinking that the higher chances for
restrictions will be in the valleys to the W and N of KAVL.

Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected. N/NE winds will remain gusty
at KCLT through around daybreak, before speeds fall below 10 kts
during late morning...in line with the other TAF sites. Directions
will gradually shift from N/NE this morning to NNW during the
afternoon.

Outlook: VFR conditions are expected to persist thru the week,
except for the continued potential for mountain valley low stratus
and/or fog each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TW
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...JDL