106
FXUS62 KGSP 021109
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
609 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Temperatures have increased slightly for the latter half of the
week. Confidence has also increased for rain chances Wednesday into
Thursday.

Updated for the 12z aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Cold air damming will gradually weaken over the area, allowing
temperatures to warm back above normal over the next few days.
2. Rain chances return Wednesday into Thursday as a frontal system
moves through our area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Cold air damming will gradually weaken over the area,
allowing temperatures to warm back above normal over the next few
days.

Early morning water vapor satellite imagery depicts a pronounced
trough over the Four Corners region with a broad area of ascent
overspreading the Great Plains. Downstream of this feature, across
the Mississippi Valley, shortwave ridging continues to slide east
towards the Appalachians. At the surface, high pressure that was
formally situated over New York has been shunted east and offshore
as the synoptic pattern remains rather progressive. This will in
turn lead to eventual demise of the CAD wedge with the surface high
no longer in a favorable position for CAD maintenance. Surface winds
shift to out of the east today with cloud cover gradually scattering
allowing for a return of sunshine. Rising heights with the approach
of the shortwave ridge will also foster warming low-level
temperatures with afternoon highs climbing back into the mid 60s to
low 70s today. This trend persists Tuesday into Wednesday as 500mb
heights rise to nearly 587dam as the pattern amplifies with the
upstream trough digging across the Mississippi Valley. Temperatures
will continue to be well above average for early November with
afternoon highs in the upper 60s to upper 70s, some 7-10 degrees
above normal.


Key message 2: Rain chances return Wednesday into Thursday as a
frontal system moves through our area.

By Wednesday, a complex upper pattern will be evolving as a large
scale trough ejects across the Mississippi Valley and lifts over
the Appalachians. Guidance offers varying solutions as to how this
feature evolves, especially in regards to the tilt of the trough and
the influence of additional pieces of shortwave energy rounding the
base of the trough. The GFS solution depicts a neutral to slightly
negative tilt trough while the ECMWF solution maintains a positive
tilt. Regardless, height falls begin to overspread the region by
Wednesday afternoon with moisture return advecting low to near mid
60s dewpoints back into the area. Upslope flow will commence over
the southern Blue Ridge escarpment and help to blossom at least
isolated to scattered showers by early Wednesday morning. Warm
advection showers will likely increase in coverage across the
mountains through the day ahead of the main bout of upper forcing.
The strongest height falls arrive overnight into early Thursday
morning with rain chances ramping up as a pre-frontal band of
precipitation pushes across the area. As of this writing, severe
weather parameters are rather lackluster with meager CAPE and
thermodynamic profiles. Shear profiles aren`t too shabby, however,
so if even a few hundred J/kg of MLCAPE can be realized a strong or
marginally severe storm cannot be completely discounted, but
confidence is low. Any flooding potential is also rather low as the
front remains progressive along with rainfall rates being tied to
convection. PWATs of 1.5-1.75" will be in the 90th percentile for
early November, so isolated heavy rainfall will be possible, but dry
antecedent conditions and progressive storm motion should limit any
excessive rainfall threat. The front will eventually push through
the area Thursday into early Friday with a return of dry weather in
its wake.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Low-VFR stratus with a few pockets of MVFR
have been observed across the area this morning as a residual cold
air damming wedge boundary hangs on. The wedge will weaken through
the day and allow for lifting and scattering of clouds with a return
to VFR by mid to late morning. Winds will be light out of the
east/northeast with the exception of a few low-end gusts near the
immediate wedge boundary (KAND/KGSP/KGMU). Heading into tonight,
conditions start VFR but a return of moist southeast flow could
foster the development of more MVFR stratus across the Upstate and
into the mountain valleys. Will refrain from adding mention just yet
given low confidence at this juncture, but it may be needed with
later forecasts.

Outlook: Mostly dry, VFR conditions should continue through Tuesday.
Rain and associated restrictions are expected to return Wednesday
into Thursday as a front crosses the region. With ample cloud cover
expected over the next few days, mountain valley fog should be
limited.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

TW