597
FXUS62 KGSP 012306
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
706 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the latest forecast.

Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Well above normal and dry through Friday for most locations,
outside of the potential for a few mountain showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening.
2. Cold air damming will set up over the area behind a cold front,
bringing cooler temperatures and widespread rain over the weekend,
especially Saturday night into Sunday. Locally heavy rainfall is
possible but confidence is low.
3. Dry next week with a brief warm up on Monday before below
normal temperatures return Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Well above normal and dry through Friday for most
locations, outside of the potential for a few mountain showers and
thunderstorms Friday afternoon/evening.

Upper ridge continues building over the Southeast will linger over
the region through Friday night, keeping warm and well above normal
temperatures around. Highs peak on Friday, climbing into the upper
80s to lower 90s east of the mountains. At the surface, the western
periphery of high pressure will remain extended over the Southeast
through Friday morning before nudging eastward in response to a cold
front approaching out of the west. This will act to keep dry
conditions around for most locations through Friday night, although
moisture will return in the form of scattered showers and
thunderstorms across the mountains Friday afternoon and evening.
Severe weather is not expected.


Key message 2: Cold air damming will set up over the area behind a
cold front, bringing cooler temperatures and widespread rain over
the weekend, especially Saturday night into Sunday. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible but confidence is low.

A cold front tracks across the forecast area this weekend, with
hybrid cold air damming building in behind the front. This will
allow widespread rain to develop, especially late Saturday into late
Sunday. The main concern will be heavy rainfall leading to nuisance
to minor hydro issues thanks to forecast PWATs ranging from 1.5 to
2.0 inches. However, there is still quite a spread among the models
regarding weekend rainfall amounts. The NAM is the most bullish with
rainfall totals across the GSP forecast area while the Euro shows
the heaviest rainfall occurring south and east of the GSP forecast
area. The GFS lies somewhere in the middle. NBM seems to align more
with the GFS, showing roughly 1 to 2.5 inches of rainfall for most
locations with locally higher totals of 3+ inches possible. Thus,
confidence on rainfall totals remains low. With dry antecedent
conditions in place and models disagreement on where exactly the
swath of heavy rain will occur, confidence also remains low
regarding the heavy rainfall/hydro threat.

With stable cold air damming in place all weekend, the severe threat
will remain very low, if any. Could not rule out some embedded
thunderstorms, especially during peak heating Saturday, but
confidence is low as this will be determined by how far south the
wedge is able to build on Saturday. The potential for embedded
thunder will be much lower on Sunday as the wedge strengthens. The
exception will be the Southwest North Carolina mountains as these
areas will be under less of an influence from the wedge.

Highs on Saturday will be tricky and also dependent on how far south
the wedge builds. If the wedge remains farther north then highs
could end up above normal for most locations. If the wedge builds
farther south, then temperatures would end up much cooler. Thus,
confidence remains low on highs for Saturday. The wedge will build
southward Saturday night into Sunday, allowing for much cooler and
below normal highs on Sunday. Lows through the weekend will end up a
few to several degrees above normal thanks to thick cloud cover and
widespread rain.


Key message 3: Dry next week with a brief warm up on Monday before
below normal temperatures return Tuesday into Wednesday.

Upper troughing will be the dominate feature aloft from the
Northeast down to the Mid-Atlantic much of next week. At the
surface, dry high pressure will build in from the northwest Monday
into Tuesday, lingering over the region through the rest of the
workweek. The GFS continues to show rain lingering through Monday
across portions of the GSP forecast area while the Euro continues to
show dry conditions returning by early Monday morning. The Canadian
lies somewhere in between the GFS/Euro. NBM PoPs remain in line with
the GFS. However, thinking is that NBM PoPs are overdone on Monday
and that dry conditions should return quicker than what the GFS/NBM
show. Highs on Monday rebound near normal, dropping below normal
Tuesday into Wednesday. Highs on Thursday may return to near normal.
Tuesday night should be the coldest night with lows across the
higher elevations of the North Carolina mountains dipping into the
upper 30s to lower 40s. There are no frost concerns at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Mostly VFR conditions will prevail through
the forecast period outside of mountain valley fog/low stratus
early Friday morning. For this, decided to maintain the TEMPO
for vsby and cig restrictions at KAVL from 09Z to 13Z. Light and
variable winds overnight will pick up out of the south to southwest
at 4-8 kts by Friday afternoon. Can`t rule out an isolated shower
or thunderstorm over KAVL Friday afternoon, but confidence is too
low for a TAF mention at this time. Should start to see instances
of increasing mid to high clouds along with diurnal cumulus Friday
afternoon and evening, ahead of the next storm system that will
impact the area over the weekend.

Outlook: Scattered showers and thunderstorms, as well as associated
restrictions, return across the mountains Friday afternoon and
evening. Mountain valley fog and low stratus remain possible Friday
night. More widespread showers and associated restrictions develop
ahead of a cold front this weekend. Dry and VFR conditions return
behind the front early next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

AR/CAC