Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
084 FXUS62 KGSP 081802 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC Issued by National Weather Service Columbia SC 202 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Showers and storms have begun to develop in the western portions of the forecast area. Otherwise, general forecast remains on track. Aviation discussion updated for the 18z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Mainly diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances expected through the the week. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Mainly diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances expected through the the week. A sharp trough moving east across the area through Wednesday continues to knock down the upper ridge over that`s over the area today. At the surface, a weak backdoor front drops south toward the area today, then stalls over the area on Tuesday. The front then washes out on Wednesday with weak high pressure near or to our east. These features keep a moist and unstable airmass over the area, leading to mainly diurnal convection each day. High PW values and slow moving storms could lead to some heavy rainfall. The threat of flooding is low, but minor flooding could develop if training cells develop or high rain rates linger over one area. The threat of severe storms looks minimal at best with weak instability and lapse rates. With the cloud cover and an earlier start to convection, temps are cooler than average, generally running in the upper 70s to low 80s. With more sun and a later start to convection, temps near the I-77 corridor have reached the upper 80s to around 90 at the time of this discussion. Temps could still rise another couple of degrees this afternoon across the area, but we are near the expected highs for the day. Highs tomorrow are expected to be below normal across the forecast area with low clouds and a cooler airmass. Highs Wednesday rise back to around normal. Weak ridging returns Thursday before a series of shortwaves bring more zonal flow to the area. The moist and unstable airmass remains over the area with high pressure over or near the area and no significant frontal systems. This leads to continued chances of mainly diurnal convection each day. Highs rise to around 90 for many locations outside of the mountains Thursday through Sunday. Muggy dewpoints could lead to the potential for heat index values near 100, mainly south of the I-85 corridor for the weekend. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions are being noted across the area at the start of the TAF period. Some showers and storms are beginning to develop in the western portions of the forecast area. Have kept the PROB30 for TSRA at all terminals, with varying times some based on latest guidance. There is some question if CLT will see any activity this afternoon/evening, but with the airmass as it is, a shower or storm could pop up later this afternoon. The chances for precipitation dimishes after the 00z-03z timeframe. Ceilings are then expected to drop to MVFR or IFR at all terminals with CLT likely going to IFR. Another round of showers/storms are expected after about 10z-15z, depending on the terminal with ceilings gradually improving. Winds are expected to be generally from the south into this evening, and again after sunrise, but remain relatively light in the 5-8 kt range. Outlook: An active period is expected, with at least scattered, mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms along with the potential for late night/early morning fog/low stratus restrictions continuing through the weekend. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$