736
FXUS62 KGSP 091808
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
108 PM EST Sun Nov 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong cold front will push through the area today as an Arctic
Airmass filters in behind it. The first significant northwest flow
snow event is expected along the NC/TN border starting tonight and
lingering through Monday night. Very cold temperatures and gusty
winds for the entire area through Tuesday. Temperatures rebound by
Wednesday and beyond with drier conditions expected through the rest
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1235 pm Sunday: Long wave trough axis currently
positioned across the length of the Miss Valley will continue
to deepen/sharpen, as a series of speed maxima continue to dig
down the west side of the trough. The leading edge of attendant
cold frontal boundary is currently pushing through the southern
Appalachians, and will sweep across the forecast area through the
afternoon...pushing to the east this evening. The stronger deep
layer forcing is expected to impact locations to our east this
evening, as the trough becomes more neutrally tilted, while the
best moisture return is also expected to our east. As such chances
for warm sector precip are low across the CWA, but couldn`t rule
out some showers impacting areas east of I-77 this evening.

The larger precip potential will occur across the mountains...mainly
across the TN/NC border counties...beginning this evening, as low
level NW flow develops within increasingly strong cold advection
regime. Snow levels will fall quickly, with temperatures cold
enough for wintry precip expected across even the lowest valleys
by midnight. There may be a brief mix before the temps in the
moist layer cool enough to support almost exclusively ice crystal
growth/snow development. Ingredients will become favorable for
accumulating snow showers after midnight...with cold moist layer
temps, steep low level lapse rates supporting convective lift, and
strong, terrain-orthogonal H8 flow of 30-40 kts. Through Monday
morning, snowfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are expected along the
immediate TN border, with locally higher values across the higher
peaks and ridgetops...especially of the Smokies.

NW flow snow conditions briefly become less favorable during
the daylight hours, as low level flow backs immediately ahead of
advancing upper trough axis. As this feature crosses the forecast
area late Monday into Monday night, the NW flow setup becomes very
impressive across the southern Appalachians, with a deep moist layer
characterized by temps as cool as -25 to -30 C, strong/deep NW flow,
and near-dry adiabatic lapse rates from the surface to about 600
mb. These ingredients will favor very high snow:liquid ratios of at
least 25:1 and localized convective snowfall rates of an inch/hour
or more. Fortunately, this setup will be quite brief, but more than
a foot of storm total snowfall appears likely across the higher
elevations of the Smokies, and the high elevations Winter Storm
Warning for Swain County still appears to be well-placed. For the
remainder of the TN border areas, solid Advisory conditions of 2 to
6 inches are expected across the high elevations, although locally
higher amounts are likely across the high peaks along the state
line. The nature of the setup is also such that some snow showers
are likely to progress beyond the usual NW flow upslope areas,
and some light accums are likely across portions of Buncombe and
northern Jackson Counties as well. This won`t be enough to warrant
an Advisory, but some statements and/or a Hazardous Weather Outlook
mention will be needed to address this.

Otherwise, the remainder of the area will see cold, gusty, and
dry conditions, with temperatures of 15-20 degrees below climo
expected Monday and Monday night. While winds are forecast to be
sub-Advisory, wind chill values in the single digits or lower are
expected across the high elevations of the mountains from late
tonight through the end of the period, with sub-zero wind chills
expected to be confined to elevations above 5000 feet or so. A
widespread hard freeze is forecast Mon night, and a Freeze Watch
remains in effect for areas outside the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1203 PM EST Sunday: The near-term trough axis will be east of
the CWFA by the start of the short-term. Stout surface high over the
Deep South will control sensible weather conditions through midweek
as dry and mostly sunny skies prevail. Any lingering northwest flow
snow along the NC/TN border should completely dissipate by daybreak
Tuesday. Weak cyclonic flow aloft remains over the eastern CONUS
through Wednesday with a gradually modifying airmass. Afternoon
highs on Tuesday will remain very cold with 30s in the mountains
and 40s in the major mountain valleys and most of the locations
outside of the mountains. Winds continue to be elevated Tuesday,
Tuesday night, and Wednesday as the pressure gradient between the
aforementioned surface high (1030+mb) and strong low pressure system
that moves over Quebec/Ontario (<1000mb) remains tight. Winds will
remain below advisory criteria, but a noticeable uptick in winds
out of the southwest is evident. Overnight lows Tuesday will be
a category or two warmer compared to Monday night as a result,
but values remain 5-10 degrees below normal. Temperatures rebound
significantly by Wednesday as the airmass modifies thanks to the a
developing downslope component behind a very weak, diffuse frontal
boundary and cold thicknesses fully departing the region, with
afternoon highs returning to near-normal values.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1229 PM EST Sunday: Airmass continues to warm as warmer
thicknesses move in from the west in response to an upper
ridge that propagates over the central CONUS by the end of the
workweek. Afternoon highs will run a category or so above normal
by next weekend, with locations outside of the mountains returning
into the 70s. Dry weather will persist through much of the extended,
leading to better potential for fire weather concerns as RHs drop
off. Model guidance hints at the next cold front just beyond the
D7 period, but too much speculation for any definitive details at
this time.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions are expected to prevail at
most TAF sites through this forecast period, as a cold front will
sweep across the area this afternoon...bringing much drier and
colder air. The only exception is at KAVL, where lingering/shallow
moisture banked up against the Appalachians is expected to
bring some MVFR cigs up the French Broad Valley beginning this
evening...and likely lasting for much of the night. Also can`t rule
out a brief snow shower or round of flurries at KAVL tonight, but
that is unlikely, and reduced visby is unlikely even if some -SN
develops. Otherwise, gusty W/SW winds are expected at most sites
this afternoon (except for developing gusty NW winds at KAVL),
with gusts in the lower 20s kts expected. Winds will turn toward
the WNW outside the mountains this evening, and remain gusty in the
15-20 kts range (about 10 kts stronger than that at KAVL). Winds
will pick up a bit at most sites after sunrise Monday, remaining
gusty from W/NW through the end of the period.

Outlook: A return of MVFR cigs along with better potential for
-SHSN is expected at KAVL late Monday. Otherwise, VFR with gusty
winds lingering through mid-week, mainly during the daylight
hours. Winds weaken late in the week, when the potential for early
morning mountain valley fog/low stratus will also increase.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     NCZ036-037-056-057-068>072-082-504-506-508-510.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for NCZ033-048>050-052-058.
     Winter Storm Warning from 7 PM this evening to 7 AM EST
     Tuesday for NCZ051.
SC...Freeze Watch from Monday evening through Tuesday morning for
     SCZ008>014-019-104>109.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CAC
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...JDL