Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
406 FXUS62 KGSP 111807 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 207 PM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A coastal low will slowly drift north along the East Coast through early next week. This system may bring rain to the North Carolina Piedmont and eastern Upstate tonight through Sunday as it passes by to our east. The low will then drift offshore by midweek, as dry high pressure builds in from the west brings above normal temperatures to the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 130 pm Saturday: The cwfa will remain within the western periphery of deepening cyclone off the Carolina coast through the period. The cyclone`s high level cloud shield will remain in place through tonight while stratocu gradually fills in acrs the piedmont. The inherited pop trend for tonight changes little with light measurable possibilities making it as far wwd as I-77 by daybreak. Under the thick cloud shield, Sunday morning minimums will be above climo with the mountains generally around the normal with another late night valley probability. The tight northeasterly sfc pressure gradient continues for Sunday with another day of gusty wind on tap. The consensus is for deeper moisture to make additional wwd progress toward the Carolina foothills and have increased chances for light rain as far west as the western Upstate and NC fthls. Areas of east of I-77 could struggle to reach 70 for maximums with middle 70s expected for SW 1/2 of the cwfa. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 1230 PM Saturday: There is still some uncertainty on exactly out this ongoing coastal low will evolve early next week. The associated upper low will merge with another compact low invof the northern Mid-Atlantic. This interaction may result in the sfc low wobbling westward near the Tidewater area, or even cause a new low center to form southwest of the parent low near Wilmington, NC. The ECMWF has been showing the latter solution the last few runs, and the 12z Canadian now also shows this. Even if this ends up verifying, it will likely be far enough away to have minimal impact on our sensible weather for Monday, perhaps just keeping more cloudiness and breezy conditions around. The latest consensus still has less than 15% PoPs by 12z Monday, with mostly sunny to sunny skies and lighter N winds. From there, conditions get even quieter, as the low begins to drift east off the coast Tuesday. Dry and warm high pressure builds in from the west, allowing for above-normal temps to return to the entire forecast area. Highs will be in the upper 70s to lower 80s across all but the highest elevations Tuesday. Lows mainly in the 50s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 100 PM Saturday: Very quiet weather expected thru the medium range, as a large upper ridge axis persists roughly along the Mississippi River Valley, placing the forecast area in a dry NWLY flow regime. We will be on the edge of a warm air mass centered to our west, and above normal temps look to continue thru at least Wednesday with highs possibly in the lower 80s across most of the Piedmont. A deep trough will dive into the Northeast, which may drive a dry back door cold front thru the area Wednesday evening. Temps should then cool down a couple of categories, closer to normal for the rest of the week, but still slightly above normal. The mid-CONUS ridge may start to break down and shift east by next weekend, but a return of any mentionable PoPs looks unlikely thru at least Saturday. && .AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... At KCLT...Gusty NNE winds will linger into the evening push accompanied with periodic stratocu cigs around 3K feet. We are still expecting the likelihood of MVFR stratocu cigs to become predominate tonight as well as the possibility of seeing some rain/showers, especially overnight through Sunday morning. MVFR cigs will have the potential to linger through midday Sunday as another day of gusty NNE winds are expected. Elsewhere acrs the FA...VFR conditions will remain through tonight as well as gusty N to NE to winds. There remains the possibility of see another round of NC mountain valley fog Sunday morning, but giving the likelihood of thicker clouds atop KAVL, the probabilities of IFR development is lower than this morning. Outlook: Periodic restrictions will remain possible at KCLT (and possibly KHKY) thru early Monday as sfc low pressure moves up the Atlantic Coast. VFR conditions are expected to return regionwide on Monday and persist thru at least the middle of next week. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARK NEAR TERM...CSH SHORT TERM...ARK LONG TERM...ARK AVIATION...CSH