455
FXUS62 KGSP 162358
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
758 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Air Quality Alert for ground level ozone was issued for Davie,
Mecklenburg, Gaston, York, and Chester counties for Friday from 10
AM to 8 PM.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Hot and humid conditions linger through the weekend with heat
index values ranging from 100 to 106 degrees each afternoon.
2. Coverage of mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms will
increase through weekend as a weak cold front moves through
our area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Hot and humid conditions linger through the weekend
with heat index values ranging from 100 to 106 degrees each
afternoon.

Broad upper ridging will be the dominant synoptic feature impacting
the weather across the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic thru the end of
the week. The potential to reach Heat Advisory criteria appears a
bit higher for the weekend as thickness values support slightly
warmer temps, and fcst soundings suggest less dry air aloft.
However, there is some potential for a broad plume of smoke from
wildfires (well to our north) to spread over our area tomorrow,
which could suppress temperatures somewhat. Thus, confidence was
not high enough to issue any Heat Advisories for tomorrow at this
time. Regardless, individuals should prepare for elevated heat risk
over the next few days. Stay hydrated, take frequent breaks in air-
conditioned or shaded areas, and never leave children or pets
unattended in vehicles.

Falling heights/weakening of the upper ridge should result in
slightly cooler temperatures by Sunday, but with lower potential
for sfc dewpts to mix out during the afternoon. Nonetheless, the
current fcst still has heat index values in the 100 to 103 range
across the Piedmont and Upstate. This is followed by a return of
more typical heat index values for the first half of next week.


Key message 2: Coverage of mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms
will increase through weekend as a weak cold front moves through our
area.

The upper ridge will be the primary driver of our weather pattern
the next few days. Slightly less capped/more unstable/more moist
conditions are expected tomorrow which should allow for a slight
increase in diurnal coverage of convection. However, coverage is
expected to be best across the central and southern North Carolina
mountains, the South Carolina Upstate, and northeast Georgia. The
northern North Carolina mountains, North Carolina foothills, and
North Carolina Piedmont should remain mostly dry again tomorrow.

With heights falling across the Eastern CONUS, an increase in
convective coverage is expected this weekend as a weak cold front
moves into our area. Slightly drier and cooler conditions early next
week should result in less shower and thunderstorm coverage each
day, although another cold front could enhance coverage by Wednesday.

Where convection does develop, sfc-based CAPE of roughly 2500 J/kg
and robust downdraft CAPE of 1000+ J/kg will create the potential
for a few strong-to-severe downbursts each day, especially over the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: TSRA is currently impacting KGSP and KGMU so
have a TEMPO for the next hour to account for lingering activity.
Dry conditions are noted elsewhere as of 00Z. Any lingering TSRA
should dissipate around/shortly after sunset allowing dry conditions
to return through Friday morning. With no RA reported at KAVL,
thinking mountain valley fog and stratus will not develop at the
terminal overnight, especially with winds remaining slightly
elevated. TSRA will develop once again Friday afternoon and evening
with slightly better coverage expected. Thus, introduced PROB30s for
TSRA at KAVL and the SC Upstate terminals. KCLT and KHKY should
remain dry again Friday. Winds will remain NW at KAVL through Friday
morning, going VRB Friday afternoon/early evening. Winds east of the
mountains will gradually turn more NW/N overnight before turning
more NE/ENE after daybreak. Winds east of the mountains will then
gradually turn more SE/S (with some sites going VRB) late Friday
afternoon into early Friday evening.

Outlook: Even better coverage of afternoon/evening SHRA/TSRA is
expected this weekend with a few strong to severe storms possible
each day during peak heating hours. Low stratus and/or fog will be
possible each morning, mainly in the mountain valleys.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORDS FOR 07-16

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      94 1988     69 1930     72 2020     49 1926
                1980        1897
                1932
   KCLT     100 1899     67 1930     76 2020     58 2004
                1887                    1988        2001
   KGSP     101 1887     65 1930     79 1937     57 1888



RECORDS FOR 07-17

               MAX TEMPERATURE         MIN TEMPERATURE
  STATION      HIGH        LOW         HIGH        LOW
  -------  ----------  ----------  ----------  ----------
   KAVL      95 1980     72 1917     77 1887     54 1939
                            1891
   KCLT     100 1986     74 1989     80 1881     62 2004
                1887        1896                    1903
                                                    1886
   KGSP     103 1887     76 1930     76 1934     60 1886

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

AR/JPT