517
FXUS62 KGSP 040536
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1236 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain amounts have trended slightly higher for Wednesday night.

The aviation forecast was updated to reflect the recent 06Z TAF
issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Unseasonably warm and humid conditions are expected for the
remainder of the week, with shower and thunderstorm chances
increasing today and lingering through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Unseasonably warm and humid conditions are expected
for the remainder of the week, with shower and thunderstorm chances
increasing today and lingering through Friday.

A modestly active period ensues through at least Friday as trough
located west of the area begins to lift toward the northeast,
increasing rain and thunderstorm chances. For Wednesday, a weakening
frontal boundary approaches from the west with showers and
thunderstorms. Ahead of the front, some instability builds in during
the afternoon but remains limited due to the anticipated cloud
cover. Guidance also hints at weak shear as the front occludes and
moves into the area. These less than favorable factors decreases
confidence in severe weather coverage. However, cannot rule out an
isolated strong to severe storm later today into tonight. Given the
southeasterly surface winds, there could be an isolated flash flood
risk especially along the Escarpment and foothills. Confidence
remains low on in this though. Rain amounts vary in range with this
frontal passage with 0.25"-1.5", with the higher amounts likely in
the far western NC mountains and portions of Upstate SC and
northeast GA.

Behind the front, the CWA remains in a steady southeasterly surface
wind regime, funneling moisture into the region and keeping rain
chances around. Aloft, a secondary low weakens from the breakdown of
the decaying omega block and swings toward the Ohio/TN Valley. Rain
chances look to be in the 30-40% for Thursday and increase in the NC
Piedmont for Friday as the last bit of forcing pushes through.
Guidance has a 20-30% chance for rain totals of 1" or higher for
Friday in the eastern zones, which means confidence is lower that
rain amounts with the second wave are minimal. Behind this last
system, drier air pushes in as surface high pressure spills from the
north and spreads into the region.

By Saturday, forecast looks to dry out and have cooler temps closer
to normal. Overnight temps for the weekend and into the beginning of
next week dip into the 30s for the mountains and upper 30s and 40s
elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A myriad of restrictions return to the region
through the TAF period as moisture surges into the area ahead of an
approaching cold front. Low stratus will expand overnight with MVFR
to IFR ceilings common. Ceilings will gradually lift through the
day, but most will likely remain at least MVFR, although brief VFR
could return during the afternoon. Thereafter, a band of showers is
expected to cross the area during the evening which will bring
associated visibility and ceiling restrictions. A few TSRA cannot be
ruled out either, especially at KAND. At least some degree of low
stratus will linger into early Thursday morning. Winds will be
generally light out of the south/southeast.

Outlook: Showers and associated restrictions will persist into at
least early Thursday morning, as a cold front arrives in the region.
Consistent improvement is not expected until Friday, when the cold
front moves to our east and ushers in VFR conditions for the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

CP/TW