009
FXUS62 KGSP 160252
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1052 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid with daily showers and thunderstorms expected through
most of the week. A cold front pushes across the area early Friday,
bringing drier and less humid conditions behind it heading into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

1) Isolated showers and thunderstorms will linger across our area
thru late tonight.

2) Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms expected
Monday afternoon and evening.

3) Warm and humid conditions will persist.

As of 10:25 PM EDT Sunday: We`ve got a few clusters of showers and
weak thunderstorms making their way eastward over our northern and
southern-most zones late this evening with the rest of our CWA free
of convection. Most of this activity should fizzle out as we head
into the overnight and any lingering sfc-based instability wanes.
We could see another round of patchy fog overnight and into the
morning, especially in the usual mtn valleys and over locations
that received any decent precip from earlier today. Much like the
past couple of mornings, low temps should remain about a category
above climatology.

Otherwise, the Southeast will remain under flat upper ridging thru
the near-term period. Another weak upper trof will gradually approach
our area from the west towards the end of the period late Monday, but
will slow even more as it does so. At the sfc, little change in the
synoptic pattern is expected with the western extent of the Bermuda
High keeping warm, moist SWLY flow over the region on Monday. So once
again, we can expect another round of sct convection across our area
Monday afternoon/evening. Most of the latest CAM guidance continues
to initiate the bulk of the activity over the mtns during the early
afternoon and then spread it east thru the day/evening. It`s also
looking like the best convective coverage can be expected over our
NC zones with more isolated coverage over our Upstate and NE Georgia
zones. Like the past several days, the severe potential looks minimal
but we could see a few stronger storms and maybe a severe storm or 2.
Once again, the main hazard will likely be localized flooding from
heavy downpours, especially over locations that have received heavy
rain during the past few days. Otherwise, temperatures will likely
climb a bit higher on Monday with highs approaching and/or exceeding
90 degrees outside the mtns.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Hot and Humid Each Day with Above Normal Temps and Breezy SW Winds

2) Heat Indices will Climb into the Mid 90s to Lower 100s East of
the Mountains Each Afternoon

3) Diurnal Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Continue

Bermuda high will remain over the western Atlantic keeping moist
SW`ly flow over the Southeast through the short term. This will
allow hot and humid conditions to stick around, especially east of
the mountains. Highs each afternoon will climb into the upper 80s to
lower 90s with heat indices reaching into the mid 90s to lower 100s
east of the mountains. Breezy SW`ly winds will develop each day
which will bring some relief from the heat and humidity. Mainly
diurnal showers and thunderstorms can be expected through the period.
Although sfc instability will range from 1,500-2,000 J/kg during
peak heating each day, deep layer shear will only range from 15-20
kts limiting the severe storm potential. However, an isolated severe
storm or two cannot be entirely ruled out each afternoon/evening.
Any storm that manages to become severe will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts. PWATS ranging from 1.5 to 2 inches will keep
the heavy rainfall/isolated flash flooding threat around with any
convection that develops through the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Diurnal Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Linger through Early
Friday Ahead of a Cold Front

2) Drier and Less Humid Conditions Return Briefly Friday into
Saturday Behind a Cold Front

3) Storm Chances as well as the Heat and Humidity Return Sunday

Bermuda high pressure remains parked over the western Atlantic
through the period. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach out of the
northwest on Thursday before tracking across the forecast area
Thursday night into early Friday morning. The cold front will push
south of the area the rest of Friday into the weekend. Thursday will
be another hot and humid day but breezy SW winds will return
bringing some relief. Shower and thunderstorm chances will linger
ahead of the front Thursday into early Friday morning before drier
and less humid conditions return behind the front later Friday into
Saturday. Diurnal convection, as well as the heat and humidity,
looks to return by Sunday. PWAT values will remain elevated through
early Friday so the heavy rainfall/isolated flash flooding threat
will continue ahead of and along the front. The severe weather
potential will remain low through the long term thanks to weak wind
shear and despite good destabilization each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Like the past several evenings, isolated
to sct convection will linger across our area thru late tonight
and possibly into the overnight. Based on the latest CAM guidance,
it appears that KCLT and KAVL are most likely to be impacted by
any lingering convection over the next few hrs. Thus, I have VCTS
at KAVL and VCSH (with a TEMPO for TSRA) at KCLT for the next few
hrs. For the other taf sites, I think it`s more likely that they
won`t be impacted by any lingering showers/t-storms this evening,
so no mention for them. Any lingering convection should eventually
fizzle out over our area later tonight/overnight with VFR conditions
prevailing. We could see another round of cig/visby restrictions
in the mtn valleys including KHKY and maybe KAVL, with most of the
guidance being more pessimistic at KHKY. As such, I have a few hrs
of MVFR visby and sct low cigs at KAVL, and IFR visby with a TEMPO
for LIFR cigs at KHKY around sunrise. Any restrictions should dissi-
pate by mid to late morning. Otherwise, expect another round of sct
convection across our area for Monday aftn/evening. Like the past few
days, this was handled with PROB30s for TSRA beginning in the 17 to
20z timeframe tomorrow. Winds should remain S to SW thru the period
with KAVL likely to see light and VRB winds for most of the period.

Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms are expected each day thru early
next week. Late night/early morning fog and low stratus restrictions
will be possible each day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JPT