466
FXUS62 KGSP 012326
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
626 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure moves northeast from the Gulf tonight and Tuesday with
widespread precipitation. Behind the system, high pressure will
result in chilly and dry conditions Wednesday and Thursday.
Unseasonably cold and unsettled weather is expected Friday as
another system brings more precipitation to the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Key Messages:

1) Rain with pockets of freezing rain over the northern mountains
and along/near the Blue Ridge Escarpment in North Carolina moves in
overnight.

2) A Winter Weather Advisory has been expanded to include parts of
Buncombe/Henderson/Polk/Rutherford counties, from 7 PM Monday
through 10 AM Tuesday.

As of 610 PM EST Monday: Current radar shows the initial
precipitation reaching the NE Georgia zones. However, given the
vertical profiles, the boundary layer remains dry and any light
precip is likely evaporating. This is expected to change quickly as
the system moves into the area over the next few hours and moistens
up the lower and mid levels. The latest observations shows
temperatures and dewpoints mostly on track to the forecast, so no
updates needed.

Meanwhile, as the 850mb flow improves quickly this evening, the
moisture flux and contributing strong isentropic lift that spreads
northeast between 00Z and 06Z will engulf the entire fcst area.
Thus, precip probs ramp up all the way to categorical SW to NE in
that time frame. The slightly later start might allow for a bit more
cooling down farther to the S/SW along the Escarpment, such that
when the precip arrives the temps will have an easier time wet-
bulbing down to around freezing. Meanwhile, strong warm advection
will develop a formidable warm nose overhead. The upshot is that
after some mixed precip potential at onset mainly over the mtns, we
end up with an R/ZR situation. The majority of the region will have
nothing but a cold rain, but the usual areas over the nrn mountains
and near the Blue Ridge Escarpment from Blowing Rock down to Saluda,
including the eastern-most parts of Buncombe and Henderson counties
should see a period of freezing rain starting late this evening. The
warm nose makes the situation elevation-dependent, so places that
are above about 4000 feet or so should be mostly rain after some mix
at onset. There is enough icing potential to expand the Advisory
down south to include the mountain parts of Polk and Rutherford and
also Henderson and Buncombe. NOTE that the ice potential will be
east of a line from roughly Swannanoa to Fairview and Edneyville,
with little to no accumulation expected in Asheville and
Hendersonville and west of the I-26 corridor. Of course, things
could go wrong. The most likely failure mode would be that colder
air is more extensive which could require expansion across the NC
Foothill zones, or that the cold air holds on longer and allows for
some icing to approach or exceed Warning criteria. The warm
advection should be strong, so precip should be all rain by around
daybreak. Temps will naturally be at or below normal.

The precip will move off to the east steadily and should be over
by early afternoon. Assuming we get some partial clearing and
dry air in the afternoon once the sfc wave moves to the east,
temps could rebound to around normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1237 PM EST Monday:

Key Message 1: Northwest flow in the midst of ending Tuesday evening
following the departing system from the Near-Term period. Most
locations across the area below freezing for overnight lows Tuesday.

Ongoing northwest flow precip should fully diminish by Tuesday
evening along the immediate Tennessee border as drier air disrupts
the shallow layer of moisture along the favorable upslope zones.
Weak surface high will move in from the northwest as CAA works into
the CWFA. Gusty winds gradually subside across the mountains
overnight Tuesday as the center of the surface high shifts into the
OH/TN Valleys. Temperatures will be in the upper teens and 20s
across the mountains with mid to upper 30s elsewhere for overnight
lows with decent radiational cooling conditions outside of boundary
layers struggling to fully decouple.

Key Message 2: Dry weather Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures
rebounding from Wednesday to Thursday.

Weak surface high moves across the southeastern CONUS on Wednesday
as low-amplitude ridging settles over the region in response to a
digging upper trough over the western CONUS. A cold front is shown
encroaching the CWFA from the northwest on Thursday as the front
sags through the area without much fanfare as better forcing for
ascent remains north and available moisture stays south over a
developing baroclinic zone over the Gulf Coast region. In this case,
not much change to the overall airmass. Temperatures will be cool
Wednesday with afternoon highs in the 40s in the mountains and upper
40s to lowers 50s across the Piedmont. Overnight lows should run
below freezing with 20s and lower 30s expected with good radiational
cooling conditions in place. Weak downslope component should help
bump temperatures a few degrees higher compared to Wednesday for
afternoon highs on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 115 PM EST Monday:

Key message 1: Next system moves into the western Carolinas
and northeast Georgia late Thursday into Friday, with wintry
precipitation possible, mainly across the mountains as a result
of another cold-air damming event. Confidence remains low overall
for occurrence of precipitation and winter weather.

Stronger surface high (~1030mb) moves in behind the short-term
cold front as it shifts from the Midwest through the OH Valley
and offshore the Mid-Atlantic Thursday night through Friday. The
aforementioned cold front will stall south of the CWFA, in the
vicinity of the I-20 corridor. Activated baroclinic zone over the
southeastern CONUS will induce Miller-A surface cyclogenesis along
the boundary as it becomes reactivated and develop a low pressure
system as the next storm system moves across the eastern Gulf
Coast Friday and over the Carolina Coast Friday night. Latest
model guidance have trended drier with a shorter period of good
QPF response. The complicating factor will be the strength of the
in-situ CAD as it develops Friday as the onset of precipitation
Friday morning could start out with a mix bag of wintry precip
in the North Carolina mountains/foothills, as well as the I-40
corridor before transitioning to all liquid for most locations. The
probability of any accumulating snow or ice remains confined to
the northern Blue Ridge mountains at this time, especially now
with the latest trends keeping the system slightly further south,
which in turn, limits the overall available moisture. However,
this would limit the presence of a strong warm nose, which could
lead to more of snow/sleet across the high elevations instead
of a predominately freezing rain event. Still a lot of factors
to consider, but the potential for another nuisance winter system
across the mountains is definitely in the playing cards. Elsewhere,
outside of the mountains, model solutions, including ensembles
indicate mostly a cold rain. Either way, temperatures will be cold
on Friday with most locations in the 30s and 40s across the CWFA,
with near freezing temperatures in the mountains/foothills, where
the chance for wintry precip is best.

Key message 2: Calmer weather in store for the latter half of the
weekend into early next week. Slight rebound in temperatures with
trends keeping values near normal.

One consensus that model guidance are picking up on is the overall
end time of the weekend system as precip could linger into Saturday
before shifting east of the CWFA by Saturday night as a southern
stream shortwave aids in a faster storm departure. Precip chances
have reflected this in the latest forecast update as trends have
lowered to slight chance (15-24%) and chance (25-54%) PoPs across
the area and fully drying out by early Sunday. If the latest
model guidance continue with a drier trend, then the main precip
timing will be Friday and Friday night with less coverage for
Saturday. Weak cyclonic flow aloft remains in place through the
weekend as another shortwave is shown swinging within the mean flow
and approaching the area by the end of the weekend. Guidance differ
on the overall QPF response, but looks light overall, even with the
more aggressive solutions. Slight chance PoPs are introduced across
the mountains Sunday night, but remains dry elsewhere. Temperatures
continue to run within a few degrees of normal over the weekend
into the early next week, but is subject to change depending on
how long CAD lingers, especially for Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions to start with restrictions
quickly setting in overnight. A low pressure system moves in
overnight, bringing RA and IFR/LIFR at all sites. FZRA is possible
outside of the KAVL area, but confidence is at least medium that
temperatures remain too warm and should remain RA. VSBY drops down
into the IFR range by daybreak, with LIFR possible as well. A TEMPO
for 1SM at all sites except KAVL and KAND. Prevailing 1SM at KAVL
from 13z-16z where confidence is higher. RA should taper off after
16z from west to east, but IFR cigs linger before improving toward
the end of the TAF period and about 22z-23z time frame at KCLT.
Expect a return to VFR at KCLT shortly after 01z tomorrow. Winds
become light to VRB overnight before slowly increasing after
daybreak, but should remain N/NW for the period.

Outlook: VFR conditions return Tuesday night into Wednesday. Another
system may bring rain and associated flight restrictions to the
region on Friday and into the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 10 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ033-049-
     050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CP/PM
SHORT TERM...CAC
LONG TERM...CAC
AVIATION...CP