705
FXUS62 KGSP 082338
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
738 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation Discussion was updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Mainly diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances expected through
the the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Mainly diurnal shower and thunderstorm chances
expected through the the week.

A sharp trough will slowly move east across the area through
Wednesday knocking down the upper ridge over the area today. At the
surface, a weak backdoor front drops south toward the area today,
then stalls over the area on Tuesday. The front then washes out on
Wednesday with weak high pressure near or to our east. These
features will keep a moist and unstable airmass over the area,
leading to mainly diurnal convection each day. High PW values and
slow moving storms could lead to some heavy rainfall. The threat of
flooding is low, but minor flooding could develop if training cells
develop or high rain rates linger over one area. The threat of
severe storms looks minimal at best with weak instability and lapse
rates. With morning clouds and an earlier start to convection, highs
over the western portion of the CWFA will see highs near to a few
degrees below normal. With more sun and a later start to convection,
highs over the I-77 corridor will be around 90. Highs Tuesday will
be below normal across the forecast area with low clouds and a
cooler airmass. Highs Wednesday rise back to around normal.

Weak ridging returns Thursday before a series of shortwaves bring
more zonal flow to the area. The moist and unstable airmass remains
over the area with high pressure over or near the area and no
significant frontal systems. This leads to continued chances of
mainly diurnal convection each day. Highs rise to around 90 for many
locations outside of the mountains Thursday through Sunday. Muggy
dewpoints could lead to the potential for heat index values near
100, mainly south of the I-85 corridor for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Starting out VFR with a few scattered showers
and TSRA, with conditions expected to go down overnight into
MVFR/IFR. Will keep a PROB30 going at KCLT for SHRA through 03z.
Winds become very light to calm at most terminals overnight with BR,
causing low cigs. KAVL could have vsby restrictions after 06z-12z of
3SM. The low stratus clouds in this humid environment linger into
Tuesday as winds remain calm to very light through mid morning. Some
terminals could have a few spots of -SHRA after 12z. Another round
of TSRA at KCLT/KGSP/KAVL in the afternoon, so a PROB30 should
suffice. Cigs look to come up in the afternoon into at least MVFR
with prevailing VFR at KCLT after 21z. Light winds out of the S/SW
for Tuesday afternoon.

Outlook: Diurnal convection and associated restrictions are expected
each day this week. Mtn valley fog and low stratus are possible each
morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

CP/$$