215
FXUS62 KGSP 310441
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1241 AM EDT Sat Oct 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes to the forecast.

Updated the aviation discussion for the 06Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Cooler high temperatures return this weekend into early next
week as cold air damming develops. Temperatures very gradually
rebound through midweek ahead of the next frontal system.
2. Rain chances return middle of next week as a low pressure
system approaches out of the west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Cooler high temperatures return this weekend into
early next week as cold air damming develops. Temperatures very
gradually rebound through midweek ahead of the next frontal system.

Backdoor cold front will slip across the CWA tonight as a stout
continental surface high (~1030mb) moves towards the northeastern
CONUS. In this case, cooler, drier air will filter into the
low-levels and allow afternoon highs to settle at or slightly above
normal for today, with some low-end gusts from the northeast. At the
same time, an open shortwave will traverse east of the MS Valley
today and move towards the OH/TN Valleys and Southeast Sunday
into Monday. An increase of upper/mid-level clouds will roam the
skies during this time frame. Stout low-level dry air will keep
the better moisture transport to the south while the associated
forcing for ascent from the shortwave remains weak. Deterministic
and ensemble guidance continue to show a mostly dry solution,
keeping the deeper moisture shunted closer to the Gulf Coast and
Florida. Very few ensemble members from the deterministic models
depict measurable rainfall across portions of the CWA. As a result,
mentionable PoPs are just about completely out of the forecast
for late Sunday into Monday. Some of the run to run trends in the
deterministic models show blips of precip, across portions of the
CWA. However, confidence is too low to pinpoint exactly where in
the aforementioned areas would likely receive any precipitation,
so the current PoP forecast looks good, with isolated coverage
expected. CAD is expected to be fully entrenched across the area
on Sunday, leading to the coolest day of the forecast period,
with most locations being at or slightly below normal for afternoon
highs. Any lingering wedge should gradually erode through early next
week, allowing temperatures to gradually rebound each day through
Wednesday during the new workweek to slightly above normal values.


Key message 2: Rain chances return middle of next week as a low
pressure system approaches out of the west.

The next mid/upper trough will be in the midst of moving across
the western CONUS Sunday and propagate to the central CONUS Monday
and Tuesday, while most of the guidance closes off into a low as
it marches east. At the surface, a deepening cyclone will develop
over the Central Plains, while a secondary low forms over the
Southern Plains and lower half of the MS Valley. An attendant
cold front will move east across these same areas as well. Ahead
of this system, the surface high over the northeast moves over
the northwestern Atlantic, while southerly return flow brings a
better moisture transport into the CWA, ahead of the system. The
overall timing and synoptic progression still differs amongst
all guidance, but there is decent agreement for at least some
precipitation by midweek next week. Severe weather can`t be ruled
out with this setup as deep layer flow will be enhanced. However,
guidance only shows meager instability, if any at all as the cold
front slides across the CWA Wednesday into Thursday. Details in
regards to this frontal system is still too far out for specifics.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
through the TAF period. High clouds will continue to stream across
the region as a backdoor cold front pushes through from the
northeast. Winds will be out of the northeast behind the front with
low-end gusts expected at most terminals through the afternoon
hours. Light winds returning overnight into early Sunday morning.

Outlook: Mostly dry and VFR through Tuesday. Cannot entirely rule
out restrictions early next week but confidence is low. Otherwise,
rain and associated restrictions should return middle of next week.
With cloud cover expected this weekend into much of next week,
mountain valley fog formation should remain limited.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

CAC/TW