876
FXUS62 KGSP 271757
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
157 PM EDT Sun Sep 27 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
PoPs increased by 15-25% for Friday into Friday night.

The aviation discussion was updated for the 18z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry weather with a gradual warming trend expected through most
of the work week. Then rain chances may return to the area Friday,
with better chances over the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Dry weather with a gradual warming trend expected
through most of the work week. Then rain chances may return to
the area Friday, with better chances over the weekend.

A stalled nor`easter will continue to meander over the NY/NJ Bight
thru Monday, then start to drift NE into New England and weaken
Monday night into Tuesday. Dry, stable cyclonic flow on the back
side of the low will remain atop the forecast area, keeping temps
near normal and skies mostly clear.

Upper ridge builds in from the Plains Wednesday, peaking Thursday
over the Southeast. Dry conditions are expected to continue, but
temps will warm back above normal, with mid 80s Wed, and mid to
upper 80s Thu and Fri across the Piedmont. Models start to diverge
on Friday, with a large upper low tracking across the Four Corners
region into the Southern Plains and possibly interacting with
T.C. Polo in NW Mexico/Southern Plains.  The GFS seems to be a
fast outlier with the trough and quickly advecting Gulf moisture
over the forecast area Friday. The EC and Canadian keep Friday
dry, but enough of the medium range ensemble members have PoPs,
such that the NBM has now trended back up into the chance range
Friday. Having said that, the NBM PoPs seem overdone given the upper
ridge still in place and weak return flow. By Saturday, return
flow should start to ramp up, as the upper ridge shifts east and
the southern stream upper low crosses the Southern Plains. There
will be an ~1030 mb sfc high over the eastern Great Lakes or the
Northeast that may produce a CAD event over the weekend, with
moisture advecting atop the wedge. The NBM has trended cooler Sat
and Sun due to potential CAD, with solid chance to likely PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions with mostly clear skies to
continue thru the 18z TAF period. Mtn valley fog is expected again
tonight in the usual areas, but like the past few mornings it is
not expected to impact KAVL. Otherwise, winds will continue to
favor a NWLY to NLY direction thru the period with speeds generally
between 5 and 10 kts. KAVL will see 15-20-kt gusts until around 00z.

Outlook: Dry, VFR conditions should persist thru the middle of
the week, with the usual mtn valley fog/low stratus possible
each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

ARK