983
FXUS62 KGSP 031754
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1254 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated for the aviation discussion for the 18z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Unseasonably warm and humid conditions are expected for the
remainder of the week, with shower and thunderstorm chances
increasing Wednesday and remaining through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Unseasonably warm and humid conditions are expected
for the remainder of the week, with shower and thunderstorm chances
increasing Wednesday and remaining through Friday.

The upper air pattern atop the Conus will remain amplified/not
especially progressive through much of the week, with even a
semblance of an early week, short-lived omega block out West. The
center of an upper low is forecast to lift from the Southern Plains
Tuesday morning to the upper Miss Valley by Wed morning, inducing
gradual height falls over the East. Associated occluding/weakening
frontal zone is forecast to approach our CWA from the west on
Wednesday. Persistent southerly flow ahead of this feature will
result in increasing warmth and humidity over the next couple of
days, with temps forecast to be (at least) 5-10 degrees above normal
Tue through Wed, while surface dewpoints are forecast to increase to
the 60s by Wed afternoon. Frontal zone will therefore find more than
adequate moisture along with some modest instability in place as it
moves into our area Wed afternoon/evening. Short term and convection-
allowing guidance features fairly robust forcing, especially in the
low levels as the boundary crosses the TN Valley and the Deep South
Wed afternoon, but quickly weakens said forcing as the occlusion
process matures over the Appalachians and points east Wed night. As
a result, a strong gradient in PoPs and especially QPF is
anticipated from west to east, with general 0.5-1.0" amounts
currently forecast across our western third (locally higher amounts
on south-facing slopes), and barely any precip forecast east of I-77.

The combination of unimpressive shear and modest instability
along with the occluding nature of the front are not favorable for
an organized severe storm threat, but we suppose a couple of strong-
to-severe storms cannot be ruled out. Locally heavy rain is possible
across western areas, especially on aforementioned south-facing
slopes, with a non-zero chance of localized flash flooding Wed/Wed
night.

Very little thermodynamic contrast is anticipated in the wake of
the frontal zone Thursday, so conditions are forecast to remain
warm and humid. While there won`t be much of a source of organized
lift to speak of, general cyclonic flow aloft combined with
terrain effects is likely to result in some scattered convection
Thu afternoon/evening. By Thu night, a weakening upper low over
the Southern Plains is forecast to kick out quickly across the
southeast quadrant of the country, with associated height falls
introducing a cold front, and possibly another round of convection
to the region late Friday. However, global models differ widely
regarding the extent of any convective coverage. We advertise PoPs
mostly in the 40-50% range for the time being.

Saturday is forecast to be a transition day, with temperatures
remaining above normal, albeit with some degree of cool/dry air
advection likely being in progress...setting the stage for a
return to dry weather along with typical mid-autumn temperatures
and humidity levels for early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Sct to bkn MVFR clouds continue to make their
way northward over most of our fcst area early this afternoon. As
such, I kept TEMPOs for MVFR cigs at the Upstate terminals and KAVL
for the first few hrs of the period. By mid-afternoon, I expect the
lower clouds to sct out. A deeper surge of moisture moves into the
region tonight ahead of an advancing cold frontal boundary. This is
expected to produce a more widespread deck of low stratus with wide-
spread MVFR cigs anticipated along with periods of IFR cigs. The IFR
cigs were mostly handled with TEMPOs in the 10 to 14z window. Shower
chances begin to ramp up towards the end of the TAF period, with VCSH
carried at the Upstate sites and a PROB30 for -SHRA at KAVL beginning
earlier tomorrow. Otherwise, winds will be generally be out of the E
to ENE today and tonight becoming more light and VRB overnight. Winds
will eventually pick up out of the SE tomorrow afternoon with speeds
of 5 to 10 kts.

Outlook: Showers and associated flight restrictions are expected to
continue late Wednesday into Thursday as a front crosses the region.
Additional showers and restrictions are possible on Friday, with VFR
conditions returning for the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

JPT/TW