677
FXUS62 KGSP 090508
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
108 AM EDT Thu Oct 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool high pressure builds into the region through Friday bringing
much cooler and below normal temperatures. A warming trend develops
this weekend into early next week, with above normal temperatures
returning late this weekend into the middle of next week. Dry
conditions are expected to continue through at least the middle of
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1139 PM Wednesday: A surface cold front continues to drop
across the area with much drier and cooler air quickly filtering in
from the north. PWATs will continue to fall through the period to
less than 0.5" by Friday morning with dewpoints well into the low
40s. Low-level thermal profiles will cool as well with cold
advection lowering 850mb temperatures 6-8 C. The result will be a
much more typical fall day today with highs in the mid 60s to low
70s. Overnight lows into Friday morning will subsequently fall into
the low 40s to around 50, but will driven by advection as the
boundary layer remains well mixed within a rather sharp surface
pressure gradient as a 1035mb high settles over New England.
Speaking of, the mixed boundary layer and strengthening pressure
gradient between the New England high and a developing coastal low
will keep gusty winds in place through the period, but well below
advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Frost Possible Early Friday Morning Across Portions of the North
Carolina Mountains

2) Below Normal Highs Return Friday with Warmer and Just Below
Normal Highs on Saturday

3) Dry Weather Continues with Breezy Winds Lingering East of the
Mountains

Dry cold air damming sticks around Friday thanks to a sfc high
centered over New England. The center of the sfc high gradually
slides offshore into the western Atlantic Friday evening into
daybreak Saturday before another area of sfc high pressure builds in
from the north for the remainder of the short term. Meanwhile, a
coastal low develops off the Southeast coast this weekend while
gradually lifting northward towards the coastal Carolinas. The bulk
of the moisture associated with the coastal low should remain south
and east of the GSP CWA per most of the high-res and global models.
However, both the 00Z HRRR and NAMNest show the potential for some
light showers to develop on Friday ahead of the coastal low and the
latest GFS is now showing the potential for precip to push into the
southern SC Upstate and western NC Piedmont Saturday evening into
Saturday night as the coastal low approaches the NC coast.
Confidence on precip making it this far inland through the period
remains low so kept dry NBM PoPs for now. Frost that manages to
develop overnight Thursday will linger across portions of the
northern NC mountains and for some locations west of the French
Broad Valley Friday morning. Breezy N/NE winds east of the mountains
will linger through the period, ranging from 15-25 mph. Highs on
Friday will end up a few degrees cooler compared to Thursday, ending
up ~4-6 degrees below normal. A warming trend begins Saturday, with
highs ending up near normal to just below normal. Lows Friday night
will end up just above normal, becoming 4-8 degrees above normal
Saturday night. With warmer temps expected Friday nigh and Saturday
night, any frost that develops should remain isolated to elevations
above 4,000 ft the northern NC mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry Weather Lingers through the Long Term

2) Warming Trend Continues through Early Next Week with Above Normal
Temperatures Expected

3) Breezy Winds Expected Across Most Areas Each Day

Coastal low off the Carolinas is expected to lift north or northeast
through Monday night before pulling away from the East Coast Tuesday
into Wednesday. Meanwhile, an area of dry sfc high pressure will
build in from the north across the Deep South and the Southeast
Sunday into Tuesday before another dry sfc high builds in across the
central and eastern CONUS on Wednesday. Once again the latest GFS is
showing precip making it to the eastern fringe of the forecast area
on Sunday while the rest of the global models show precip remaining
east of the forecast area. Thus, maintained dry NBM PoPs on Sunday
for now with low confidence on whether moisture associated with the
coastal low can make it that far west. The GFS then shows dry
conditions (like the rest of the global models) Sunday night through
at least the middle of next week so dry NBM PoPs look good for the
rest of the long term. The warming trend will continue through
Tuesday before a slight cooling trend begins Wednesday. Temps will
end up ~3-6 degrees above normal Sunday into Sunday night, becoming
several degrees above normal the rest of the period. Breezy winds
will develop across most locations each day, ranging from 15-20 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
through the TAF period as a cold front drops across the area. A deck
of mid-layer stratus has developed mainly along and north of I-85
(KAND/KGMU/KGSP), but ceilings will remain VFR with bases rising by
or shortly after daybreak. Otherwise, winds will remain elevated and
out of the northeast with frequent gusts expected through much of
the period.

Outlook: Drier conditions are expected to persist for the remainder
of the week and into the weekend. Patchy morning fog/low stratus
will be possible in the mountain valleys starting this weekend,
otherwise VFR conditions are anticipated.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...TW
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...TW