393
FXUS62 KGSP 021023
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
623 AM EDT Tue Jun 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Much cooler today with scattered showers and isolated mountain
thunderstorms.
2. Dry/convection-free weather with a warming trend Wednesday
through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Much cooler today with scattered showers and isolated
mountain thunderstorms.

The latest water vapor imagery depicts a broad long wave trough
centered just off the East Coast, with a short wave trough digging
south into the central Appalachians. Surface analysis depicts
light NE flow across our forecast area, with drier air gradually
filtering into the Piedmont. In the wake of the short wave,
broad high pressure will build southeast from the Great Lakes,
sharpening an inverted ridge down Virginia and Carolina Piedmont as
statically stable air spills east of the central Appalachians. In
conjunction with this, an inverted trough will sharpen across east
TN and far western NC, and this will provide the primary impetus
for precip chances later today...with chances enhanced by the
approaching short wave. PoPs will therefore be highest (likely)
across far southwest NC, while 20-40 PoPs are advertised for much
of the remaining area west of roughly Highway 321. Mostly showers
are anticipated, although an isolated thunderstorm is possible
across the Smokies and vicinity. ENE low level flow along with
mid-level cloud cover is expected to result in temps around 10
degrees below normal in most locations through tonight.


Key message 2: Dry/convection-free weather with a warming trend
Wednesday through the end of the week.

Heights will begin to rise Wed, as a long wave trough progresses
away from the East Coast, and a highly amplified ridge/associated
anticyclone builds into the Southeast from the central Conus. A
warming trend commences Wednesday, with temps steadily warming each
day...reaching normal levels by Friday and likely remaining within a
degree or two of climo through early next week as the ridge begins
to break down. The upper air pattern will favor some degree of
surface ridging across the southern Appalachians and vicinity
through much of the week, with little-to-no moisture transport
expected off the Gulf of western Atlantic. As such, chances for
convection are virtually nil until at least Sunday, when the air
mass may modify sufficiently to allow for spotty diurnal
showers/perhaps a storm over the high terrain. Chances for
convection improve a bit into the early part of the new work week,
when global models generally agree in falling eastern heights and
improving moisture/instability profiles.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR is expected to prevail through
the period, as an inverted surface ridge gradually strengthens
through the morning, resulting in steadily increasing NE winds and
allowing drier low level air to filter through the Terminal Forecast
Area. Meanwhile, areas of BKN/OVC mid-level clouds in the 070-100
range are expected through the daylight hours, with SKC conditions
developing overnight. Scattered showers are expected to develop
across upstate SC and the mountains this afternoon, with VCSH
carried at the TAF sites in those areas. NE winds of around 10 kts
will develop at all sites except KAVL by late morning...continuing
through the daylight hours before diminishing this evening.

Outlook: Convection-free weather is expected through at least
Saturday. VFR will predominate, but some potential for morning
mountain valley fog/low clouds will develop by the end of the week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

JDL