305
FXUS62 KGSP 081746
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1246 PM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry high pressure will move in from the west through the middle part
of the week. A series of two cold fronts will move across the region
during the latter half of the week, ultimately bringing much cooler
temperatures by the end of the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1245 PM EST Monday...

Key Message 1: Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for Avery
County ands elevations above 3,500 feet in Yancey and Mitchell
Counties until 1 AM Tuesday.

Upper trough and associated surface wave will continue tracking
across the GSP forecast area through the early evening hours before
pushing east late this evening. This will keep snow chances around
across the mountains through the late afternoon/early evening hours.
Additional snowfall amounts of 1 to 2.5 inches can be expected for
locations in the Winter Weather Advisory. Elevations above 3,500
feet outside the advisory can expect an additional 0.5 to 1 inch of
snowfall. Highs across of the mountains will end up ~10-15 degrees
below normal thanks to cloud cover sticking around.

Key Message 2: Cold rain will linger across the North Carolina
mountain valleys, foothills, and Piedmont through late this
afternoon with some sleet or snow may mixing in at times.

Dry conditions should continue across northeast Georgia and the
South Carolina Upstate the rest of today. With temperatures expected
to remain above freezing across the North Carolina mountain valleys,
foothills, and Piedmont, the cold rain will continue through late
this afternoon. Still have the chance to see some sleet and/or wet
snow mix in at times across the North Carolina foothills and
Piedmont, with snow possibly blowing down into the mountain valleys
at times. However, only light (if any) accumulation is expected.
Highs east of the mountains will also end up ~10-15 degrees below
normal thanks to thick cloud cover.

Key Message 3: Drier conditions return this evening into tonight but
slippery roads will be a concern through Tuesday morning for areas
that received accumulating snowfall.

Surface high pressure gradually builds in from the north tonight
bringing drier and colder conditions. With temps expected to fall
(or remain) below freezing, slippery road conditions will be a
concern for the evening and morning commutes across areas that
received accumulating snowfall. An SPS may need be issued later this
afternoon to account for possible hazardous road conditions this
evening into early Monday morning. Cloud cover will gradually thin
out through the overnight hours allowing temps to drop below
freezing area-wide tonight. Lows will end up ~5-10 degrees below
normal.

Key Message 4: Dry and cool conditions expected on Tuesday with
gradually diminishing cloud cover.

Temperatures will rise above freezing by mid to late morning Tuesday
for most locations allowing the concern for slippery roads to
diminish. Surface high pressure will remain over the GSP forecast
area keeping dry and cool conditions around for Tuesday. Although
cloud cover will gradually thin out throughout the day (we will
finally get to see sunshine), highs will remain ~10-15 degrees below
normal area-wide. Highs will only reach into the upper 30s to upper
40s across the mountain valleys and east of the mountains. Highs
across the higher elevations will range from the lower 30s to lower
40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Key Messages:

1) Winds pick up on Wednesday, especially over the mountains.

2) Mostly dry and near normal temps.

As of 1210 PM EST Monday: The short term looks mostly quiet with the
exception of minimal precipitation chances and wind. A more typical
winter pattern continues with a strong high off the west coast,
creating NW flow aloft across the the eastern CONUS. On Wednesday, a
strong area of low pressure churns over Canada as a second, weaker
low spins off toward the south. Current guidance brings this low
further south, increasing the chances for windy conditions. This
tighter pressure gradient looks to go right over the CWA. A speed
max embedded in the general flow, looks to maximize Wednesday into
Wednesday night before exiting the area. At this time, guidance has
a 40-50% chance of wind gusts greater than 45 mph at the higher
elevations of the mountains. This would be right about Wind Advisory
Criteria, so there is a possibility one would be needed. Confidence
is increasing on wind gusts of 35 mph or greater as the chances also
tick up into the 50-60% range across the NC mountains. Will continue
to monitor. As for precipitation, the better news is guidance is
coming in much drier as the persistent trough starts to recede
northward, keeping the stints of advancing DPVA further north. So,
the potential for a cold front is almost completely gone, meaning
winter weather chances have also decreased. There is a slight chance
(15-30%) that a brief burst of snow along the TN/NC border is
possible Wednesday night, but confidence is low. IF anything falls,
there is a 10-15% chance of snow amounts greater than 0.01 inch.
Additionally, this means the colder temps that were in previous
guidance has now pushed further into the next period. Temperatures
Wednesday and Thursday look to be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
1) Snow chances over the NC mountains Thursday night into Friday are
decreasing .

2) A potential colder period toward the end of the weekend with
temperatures about 15 degrees below normal.

As of 1220 PM EST Monday: By Friday, the NW flow aloft remains
locked in for the extended. However, guidance has changed and brings
the better flow northward, keeping the CWA out of the main show. At
the surface, the colder air looks to also be much slower breaking
out of Canada and spilling into the U.S. This also keeps the
temperatures near normal through at least Saturday, before dipping.
As for any precipitation chances, this has also drastically
changed. The highest PoPs are for the TN/NC border on Thursday
and Friday nights and those are capped at slight (15-30%). If
temperatures are cold enough and there is any surface moisture
lingering, there could be a brief burst of snow at the highest
elevations. Some of this may linger into Friday but confidence
continues to increase that there won`t be any impactful winter
weather. Current probabilities for snow amounts greater than
0.01 inch are less than 20%, and this is mainly at the highest
peaks. So, all in all, the winter weather chances are plummeting
and a quieter period is starting to emerge. This still needs to
be evaluated as any shift of the main flow aloft could be the
difference between quiet weather and increasing precipitation
chances.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Restrictions are ranging from VFR to IFR
across the western Carolinas as of 18Z. Restrictions are expected to
stick around through much of the TAF period, with very little
improvement through daybreak Tuesday. Restrictions will start to
lift after sunrise on Tuesday with VFR returning across all
terminals by the late morning or early afternoon hours. Patchy fog
should develop around daybreak Tuesday before lifting by mid-
morning. The SC terminals will see dry conditions continue through
the 18Z TAF period, while precip chances linger across the NC
terminals through late this afternoon. Some -SN could blow down the
valley at KAVL but confidence is too low to mention at the terminal
so went with -RA for now. KHKY has the best potential to see a -RASN
mix this afternoon so have this accounted for at the terminal. -RA
is expected at KCLT this afternoon. Wind direction will be NE east
of the mountains through early Tuesday morning before winds
gradually turn S/SSW mid-morning to early afternoon Tuesday. Winds
at KAVL will be N`ly through tonight, toggling S`ly around daybreak
Tuesday.

Outlook: Dry high pressure lingers through Wednesday. NW flow precip
may develop along the NC/TN border Wednesday night and again
Thursday night but dry conditions should linger elsewhere.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Tuesday for NCZ033-049-
     050.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...CP
LONG TERM...CP
AVIATION...AR