229
FXUS62 KGSP 022331
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
631 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation forecast was updated to reflect the recent 00Z TAF
issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Cold air damming continues to weaken over our area, allowing
temperatures to warm back above normal over the next couple days.
2. Rain chances return Wednesday into Thursday as a frontal system
moves through our area.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Cold air damming continues to weaken over our area,
allowing temperatures to warm back above normal over the next
couple days.

Mostly clear conditions across the western Carolinas this
evening, with scattered mid- and high-level clouds and quite a
bit of clearing.  1030mb surface high is now located well off the
Atlantic coast, and any contribution to the remnant wedge east of
the Appalachians continues to diminish.  Aloft, recent satellite
imagery suggests the axis of a weak z500 shortwave is now located
east of I-77...and the resulting subsidence over our area means
little additional cloud cover or sprinkles should develop overnight.

Otherwise...a weakening ridge axis will maintain some degree of
ELY low-level flow across our area into mid-week. This should
result in dry weather thru at least Tuesday evening.  Partly to
mostly clear conditions should permit a wide diurnal range, with
lows dropping into the 40s tonight, and then steadily warming
again tomorrow...with highs expected to reach the mid to upper
70s across most of our lower terrain Tuesday afternoon.


Key message 2: Rain chances return Wednesday into Thursday as a
frontal system moves through our area.

A complex upper pattern will set up over the CONUS by mid-week
with an omega block developing over the western/central CONUS,
and a downstream ridge building along the East Coast. At the sfc,
a moist occluded front will gradually approach our area from the
west by early Wednesday, and slowly make its way thru the area
over the next 24 to 48 hrs. In response, PoPs increase to at least
likely across the western half of our fcst area by late Wednesday
and peak early Thursday with precip likely across most of our area.
Most of the latest guidance still has some amount of weak instabi-
lity ahead of the frontal boundary on Wednesday and more instability
across our area Thurs as the boundary moves thru. They also depict
moderate amounts of bulk shear over our area, however the better
shear early Thurs does not appear to line up very well with the
higher instability Thurs afternoon. Nonetheless, a minimal severe
threat still appears to exist for our fcst area. With regards to
excessive rainfall/flooding potential, the current fcst has most
of our CWA getting less than an inch of rain from this system,
however portions of the Escarpment could get significantly more
QPF from the enhanced upslope flow expected over those areas.
At present, WPC has a day 3 Marginal Risk area over our western
zones late Wed thru early Thurs. This seems reasonable based on
our current fcst.

Otherwise, a secondary/trailing cold front produces another uptick
in precip chances early Friday, but any precip amounts should be
minimal on Friday. Little temperature change is expected behind the
front on Friday, with above normal temperatures continuing into the
weekend. The fcst is trending cooler for Sunday and early next week,
with temperatures now fcst to drop slightly below normal early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR for the 00Z TAF period, with the
exception of another round of potential MVFR ceilings on Tuesday
morning.  The chances look lower at GSP and GMU than they were
for this morning, so no mention of actual restrictions there, but
did keep a TEMPO for MVFR at AND.  AVL may see a round of valley
stratus before dawn as well.  Otherwise, decent conditions should
persist, with a 4-8kt NE wind continuing everywhere except AVL,
where a SE wind will instead be favored.

Outlook: Rain and associated flight restrictions should return as
early as Wednesday morning, continuing through Thursday as a cold
front crosses the region.  VFR conditions return for the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

JPT/MPR