475
FXUS62 KGSP 161123
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
623 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another very warm day today before a mostly dry cold front brings a
return to near-normal temperatures along with gusty winds and very
dry air tonight through Monday. Conditions will become very warm
again during the latter half of the week ahead of the next cold
front, which may bring better chances of rain by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 607 AM EST Sunday: Upper trough will be draped from central
Canada through the Great Lakes and northeastern CONUS through most
of the forecast period. An attendant cold front encroaching from the
northwest should enter the mountains over the next few hours and
slip south and east through the rest of the CWFA by the afternoon.
Ahead of the front, surface winds are steadily out of the southwest,
allowing for continued shallow moisture advection. Low-level winds
just above the surface are steadily west-northwesterly, which should
help showers continue through or shortly after daybreak along the
immediate Tennessee border and higher peaks thanks to orographic
enhancement, despite the shallow layer of moisture available. The
main frontal band can be seen via line of organized showers on
radar. Still not expecting any of the precip to break containment
outside of the mountains due to the steady downslope component and
lack of available moisture. Tight pressure gradient and elevated
winds above the surface (850mb winds: 30-40 kts) will support very
gusty winds across the mountains, especially in the northern
mountains where a Wind Advisory for gusts up to 50 mph remains in
effect for Avery County and above 3500` in Yancey and Mitchell
counties through noon. Overnight lows will run 12-18 degrees above
normal with cloud cover and precip over the mountains and
southwesterly WAA elsewhere, allowing dewpoints to be in the upper
40s to low 50s.

Any lingering showers in the mountains should quickly diminish
at or shortly after daybreak as strong dry air entrainment will
be present behind the cold front. Dewpoints are expected to crash
behind the front across the CWFA late morning through the afternoon
once surface winds veer to a west to northwesterly component, which
will drop RH values between 25%-35%. This, combined with gusty
winds will increase dangerous fire weather conditions, especially
outside of the mountains. Plan is to keep the Fire Danger Statement
in place until further guidance is given from land managers as RH
values hover mostly above 25% and gusts remain below 30 mph, which
is just below Red Flag Warning criteria. Wouldn`t be surprised if
a few counties in the North Carolina foothills and Piedmont are
upgraded later in the morning. A few bouts of cirrus and stratocu
along the main cold front as it slides through will be about all
that develops outside of the mountains with the exception of ongoing
gusty winds. Compressional warming ahead of the front and continuous
downsloping will lead to afternoon highs to rise 10-15 degrees
above normal outside of the mountains. CAA behind the front should
keep afternoon highs in the mountains at or slightly above normal
as the colder air response will be delayed outside of the mountains.

CAA should settle over the rest of the CWFA overnight tonight as a
surface high moves in from the northwest. A few high clouds can`t
be ruled out with the presence of the jet streak draped just north
of the region. Lingering low-end gusts are expected over the higher
terrain, while the rest of the gusts elsewhere should gradually
subside after sunset. Outside of a few bouts of cirrus overnight,
mostly clear skies will persist. However, boundary layers will
struggle to fully decouple, especially in locations outside of
sheltered valleys and usual drainage areas. CAA will lead to
overnight lows generally a few ticks below normal, but will may dip
up to 4-8 degrees below normal depending on how much the atmosphere
can fully decouple and take advantage of otherwise decent
radiational cooling conditions during the early morning hours.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1215 AM Sunday: A long wave ridge will build across the
central Conus during the short term...downstream of significant West
Coast height falls. A compact upper low will ride atop the ridge
across the central Rockies and central Great Plains on Monday,
opening up and shearing out as it progresses into increasingly
confluent flow across the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic during the
latter half of the period. Forcing associated with this feature will
activate the broad baroclinic zone across the region late Tue into
Tue night, but precip chances will be highest north of our forecast
area, and only token small PoPs appear warranted across the
mountains from late Tue into early Wed.

In the interim, fire weather will remain the primary concern for
Monday, as the air mass will remain very dry...with precipitable
water values of around 0.25". See the Fire Weather discussion below
for further details. Otherwise, temperatures will be near-normal Mon
and Mon night, again warming to above-normal levels Tue/Tue night,
as return flow becomes established within developing warm sector
regime.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1235 AM Sunday: A complex split flow regime is expected
to become established over the Conus during the extended, with a
long wave southern stream ridge becoming established over the
southeast quadrant of the country, and a quasi-zonal/active northern
stream expected to impact the Northeast. Meanwhile, multiple rounds
of height falls overspreading the Desert Southwest will carve out a
broad and rather deep trough there. The timing of these short wave
features ejecting into the central Conus and how they interact with
the northern stream will have the largest implication on sensible
weather in the Southeast during the latter half of the extended.

In the interim, the big story will be the major warming trend that
is forecast Wed/Thu under rising heights aloft/a maturing warm
sector regime. Temperatures are expected to be around 15 degrees
above climo during this time...and it`s not out of the question that
some of our warmer locations could reach 80 degrees on one or both
afternoons. There is enough signal in the deterministic global
models to begin increasing PoPs by late Friday...when the potential
for warm frontal activation associated with aforementioned height
falls will begin to increase. PoPs continue to increase into
Saturday, when models are in generally good agreement that a cold
front may make some inroads into the region. However, model signals
are such that Fri night/Saturday PoPs generally peak at 50% across
the mountains, and at 30-40% across the remainder of the area.
Forecast temps moderate somewhat to end the week, while remaining
well above climo.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail through the
forecast period. Can`t rule out brief MVFR cigs at KAVL through 14Z
as a few showers may traverse across the terminal. BKN Stratocu has
developed over KAVL as well and should stick around until a cold
front moves across the area shortly after daybreak. In this case,
placed a VCSH mention at KAVL through 14Z, but confidence is too low
for a PROB30 and associated restrictions at this time. Southwesterly
winds will continue through the overnight hours, with low-end gusts.
Winds will veer to a west to northwesterly behind the front and
timed that based on current guidance and latest trends, but
generally at or shortly after 12Z. Gusty conditions will pick up and
linger into the afternoon and evening hours before gradually
subsiding after sunset. Can`t rule out some VFR stratocu along the
cold front. Mostly clear skies expected tonight behind the front
with lighter northwesterly winds.

Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions with diminishing winds on Monday. A
low pressure system may bring scattered showers and associated
restrictions on Tuesday, possibly lingering into Wednesday. Dry
high pressure returns on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A very dry air mass will settle in behind a departing cold
front later this morning and afternoon, leading to RH values
crashing below close to 25% across the North Carolina foothills
and Piedmont. This combined with gusty winds (20-30 mph) will
create Increased Fire Danger conditions in this area. Conditions
flirt with Red Flag Warning criteria, but will let land managers
make the decision for portions of the aforementioned area later
this morning due to the borderline values. Cooler temperatures
and precip will keep RH percentages high enough to preclude
dangerous fire conditions in the North Carolina mountains despite
stronger wind gusts (30-40+ mph). Low RH values and gusty winds
are expected in Upstate South Carolina and northeast Georgia
during the afternoon hours, but not to the extent of the North
Carolina foothills and Piedmont zones as these locations will
receive Increased Fire Danger Conditions for a longer period
of time due to the overall timing and orientation of the frontal
passage from the northwest. This will still need to be monitored
for all of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia outside of
the mountains as an expansion of the Fire Danger Statement may be
needed, as well as a Red Flag Warning for portions of the western
North Carolina foothills and Piedmont.

Winds will diminish and temperatures will cool Monday. However, the
air mass will be very dry, and minimum RH in the 15-20% range is
expected across much of the forecast area during the afternoon. A
Fire Danger Statement will likely be needed across at least a part
of the area. Conditions will begin to moisten up Mon night into Tue,
but one more day with critical RH is possible Tue afternoon.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory until noon EST today for NCZ033-049-050.
     Increased Fire Danger from noon EST today through this evening
     for NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDL
NEAR TERM...CAC
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...JDL
AVIATION...CAC
FIRE WEATHER...