020
FXUS62 KGSP 161739
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1239 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Another very warm day today before a mostly dry cold front brings a
return to near-normal temperatures along with gusty winds and very
dry air tonight through Monday. Conditions will become very warm
again during the latter half of the week ahead of the next cold
front, which may bring better chances of rain by next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1235 PM EST Sunday: Deep northwest flow remains over the area
through the period. At the surface, a cooler and very dry air mass
moves in behind a departing cold front. Wind gusts have diminished,
so the Wind Advisory has expired. However, some very gusty winds
will continue across the mountains with breezy to wind conditions
elsewhere. With warm temps and the gusty winds, the Increased Fire
Danger statement remains in place. Some stratocu will linger through
the afternoon diminish by evening. Breezy to windy conditions will
continue across the mountains overnight, with gusts dropping off
most locations elsewhere. That said, occasional gusts associated
with gap winds could linger. Lows will be a few degrees below
normal.

The very dry air mass remains in place Monday as the center of high
pressure slowly builds in from the west. Gusty winds, although at
lower speeds, will continue across the mountains. Could be some low
end gusty winds elsewhere as mixing takes place around mid morning.
Winds should diminish through the afternoon as the pressure gradient
relaxes. Despite the lower winds, RH values should drop below 25%
most locations, leading to the potential for another day with
Increased Fire Danger. Highs will be near to slightly below normal
across the mountains and near to slightly above normal elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1118 AM Sunday: The forecast continues tomorrow night with a
broad upper trough lifting across New England while a closed upper
low and associated shortwave trough slide across the Central Plains
and into the Midwest. The closed low will evolve into an open wave
as it translates across the Ohio Valley through the day Tuesday with
the majority of the upper forcing sliding by to our north. Isolated
to widely scattered showers may brush the mountains and immediate
foothills late Tuesday into Tuesday night, but most of the area
remains dry. The airmass will also begin to modify on Tuesday with
temperatures back into the low to upper 60s. Plenty of dry air will
also still be present with rather dry profiles in forecast soundings
and a mixed boundary layer extending to around ~900mb. Dewpoints
should once again mix out with relative humidity values crashing to
near critical levels in the low to mid 20% range. In addition,
stronger winds will be present in the mixed layer with momentum
transfer supporting gusts of 15-20kts. Thus, another day of
increased fire danger appears probable and a fire danger statement
may eventually be warranted. By Wednesday, yet another closed upper
low will be meandering over southern California into the Desert
Southwest within an increasingly split flow regime. Subsequent
amplification of the pattern will help to build a downstream ridge
into the Mississippi Valley and Appalachians. Temperatures will
climb back to well above average with afternoon highs on Wednesday
in the low to upper 70s across much of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1126 AM Sunday: The evolution of the synoptic pattern becomes
rather complex by late week into next weekend as a pronounced split
flow pattern dominates with active northern and southern streams. To
complicate things further, the southern stream pattern features
multiple closed upper lows traversing the Desert Southwest, which
are notorious for being poorly handled by guidance with respect to
timing and evolution of the wave. By Thursday, there`s strong
agreement that upper ridging will be entrenched front the Gulf into
the southeast states with the Southern Appalachians situated beneath
quasi-zonal flow on the poleward flank of the ridge. The next wave
in the southern stream closed low train will likely be ejecting
across the Four Corners and towards the Southern Plains with a broad
southwest flow regime over the Southern Plains into the Mississippi
Valley. A stalled baroclinic zone is also progged to reside in the
vicinity of the Ohio Valley and will likely serve as a focus for
warm advection showers and storms. Most of this activity will remain
displaced to our northwest, but occasional showers could make
inroads into the mountains Thursday into Friday. Forecast confidence
rapidly wanes heading into the weekend as the lead wave slides
across the Mississippi Valley and towards the Appalachians. How this
wave evolves will be key as to what may transpire across the region.
Some solutions depict an increasingly sheared and weaker wave
lifting north of the area with low rain chances and a predominately
dry frontal passage. Other solutions attempt to maintain a more
defined wave with a farther south track that could bring higher rain
chances back. Uncertainty is too high at this juncture to side with
either option, or even those in between, so will maintain the
blended forecast as is.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR expected through the period with some
stratocu and cirrus this afternoon, then generally SKC. Gusty WNW
wind continues outside of the mountains with very gusty NNW wind at
KAVL. Winds diminish by evening, but gusty winds continue most of
the night at KAVL. Low end gusts could also linger at KGSP/KGMU
through the evening. Gusts return by mid-morning at KAVL. Low end
gusts could be seen elsewhere as mixing begins, but overall winds
will be lighter, generally from the NW.

Outlook: A low pressure system may bring scattered showers and
associated restrictions on Tuesday, possibly lingering into
Wednesday. Dry high pressure returns on Thursday before another cold
front potentially brings showers once again.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The Increased Fire Danger statement will remain in place through
early evening with falling dew points as much drier air moves in
from the north and gusty winds continue.

Winds will diminish and temperatures will cool Monday. However, the
air mass will be very dry, with minimum RH falling into the 15-20%
range. A Fire Danger Statement will likely be needed across at least
a part of the area. Conditions will begin to moisten up Mon night
into Tue, but one more day with critical RH is possible Tue
afternoon.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Increased Fire Danger until 7 PM EST this evening for
     NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JDL/TW
NEAR TERM...RWH
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...RWH
FIRE WEATHER...RWH