232
FXUS62 KGSP 041024
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
624 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated Aviation Discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry conditions with a warming trend through Saturday. Shower
and thunderstorm chances return early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Dry conditions with a warming trend through Saturday.
Shower and thunderstorm chances return early next week.

Deep layer ridging will be the dominant feature influencing the
weather across the Southeast through at least the first half of the
weekend. The result will be a continued warming trend. Max temps
today will still fall a little shy of climo while surface dewpoints
will be in a slow recovery mode...but still anomalously low...so
all in all a pleasant day as far as early June goes. Temperatures
will warm to normal Friday...remaining near normal...perhaps a
little warmer through at least Monday.

Low level moisture will be slow to recover under the influence
of surface ridging. However, moisture and attendant afternoon
instability may be sufficient to allow for spotty diurnal
convection by Sunday...mainly over the mountains. By early in
the new work week, the global models generally agree that the
ridge will have retrograded to the central Conus, with a trough
becoming established along the East Coast. This will increase
the probability of a frontal zone interacting with the increasing
moisture...enhancing precip chances during the first half of next
week. Having said that, the signal for precip from guidance is not
especially strong, so PoPs will be mostly in the chance range Monday
through Wednesday. Temperatures trend down a bit late in the period
in anticipation of increase convection and/or potential fropa.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Low stratus and fog have developed in
the valleys west and north of KAVL, but KAVL itself will remain
VFR...as will all other TAF sites through this forecast period. In
fact, SKC conditions are expected until at least Fri morning. The
potential for valley fog/stratus will increase slightly tonight,
but confidence is low that it will develop at KAVL. Winds will
remain light/variable or calm through much of Fri morning..possibly
becoming light SW Fri afternoon.

Outlook: Expect dry, VFR conditions to continue into the
weekend. The potential for morning mtn valley fog/low clouds will
gradually increase each day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

JDL