570
FXUS62 KGSP 061704
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
104 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The Aviation Discussion was updated.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry and hot conditions through Sunday. Daily shower and
thunderstorm chances return next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Dry and hot conditions through Sunday. Daily shower and
thunderstorm chances return next week.

A compact shortwave trough is currently sliding across New England
while a notably stronger trough drops across the Pacific Northwest
and into the Northern Rockies. Farther south, a weak closed upper
low is spinning over the Southern Plains with broad upper ridging
extending across the southeast states. At the surface, residual dry
air remains in place across much of the region with only weak
southwest return flow. Dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s and a
lack of deep-layer moisture will continue to preclude the
development of traditional diurnal summer pulse convection. Heading
into tomorrow, the synoptic pattern begins to evolve as the Southern
Plains upper low opens into a shortwave trough as it lifts across the
Mississippi Valley. This will in turn foster more pronounced
southwest flow and deeper moisture return extending from the Gulf
into much of the Deep South and Georgia. The best moisture will
still remain to our southwest, but a few isolated showers could
graze the far southwest mountains.

The pattern finally returns to a more typical summer regime by the
start of next week with upper ridging centered to our south and
east. This allows for persistent southwest return flow into the area
with deep-layer moisture finally recovering. This will also be
working in concert with several passing shortwave troughs across the
Ohio Valley. Daily chances for diurnal showers and thunderstorms
will return with the highest chances over the mountains. As with any
summer storms, isolated damaging downbursts and locally heavy rain
cannot be ruled out with any storm, but organized severe weather or
widespread flooding are not anticipated. Temperatures will also
increase late week into the low to potentially mid 90s as heights
rise in response to a digging trough across the Great Plains. Heat
indices will remain well below advisory criteria, but we may see our
first near 100 degree readings across far southern reaches of the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
through the TAF period. High cirrus will continue to stream overhead
along with the development of a high-based cumulus field. Quiet
weather continues tonight outside of isolated patches of mountain
valley fog. Tranquil conditions again tomorrow with light southwest
winds.

Outlook: Diurnal convection and associated restrictions return
Monday continuing through next week. Mountain valley fog will be
possible any given morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

TW