848
FXUS62 KGSP 301019
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
619 AM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain chances have diminished across the area outside of the
mountains, mainly along the Tennessee border for Sunday.

Updated the aviation discussion for the 12Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry through at least Saturday. Trending drier Sunday through
Tuesday so confidence on getting any rain remains very low. The
next best chance for rain does not look to arrive until the
middle of next week. Above normal temperatures expected, with
the exception of Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Dry through at least Saturday. Trending drier Sunday
through Tuesday so confidence on getting any rain remains very low.
The next best chance for rain does not look to arrive until the
middle of next week. Above normal temperatures expected, with the
exception of Sunday.

Weak high pressure and warm thicknesses aloft remain in place
through today ahead of a shortwave trough that moves across the
Southern Plains. Expect temperatures today to be the warmest
through the forecast period with most locations expected to be
in the upper 70s to lower 80s for afternoon highs outside of the
higher elevations in the North Carolina mountains, leading to
values running 10-15 degrees above normal. A strong continental
surface high (~1030mb) is expected to move into the northeastern
CONUS Friday night into Saturday. In response, a backdoor cold
front will move in from the north and allow for cooler, drier air
to settle in for Saturday as afternoon highs rise only a few ticks
above normal as the onset of CAD commences.

The aforementioned shortwave trough shifts from the Southern Plains
into the Mid-MS Valley and Midwest on Saturday and continues
pushing eastward towards the OH/TN Valleys and Southeast Sunday
into Monday. An increase of upper/mid-level clouds will roam the
skies during this time frame. Stout low-level dry air will keep
the better moisture transport to the south while the associated
forcing for ascent from the shortwave remains weak. Deterministic
and ensemble guidance continue to show a mostly dry solution,
keeping the deeper moisture shunted closer to the Gulf Coast and
Florida. Only ~10-15% of ensemble members from the deterministic
models depict measurable rainfall across portions of the CWA. As
a result, mentionable PoPs have been taken out over most of the
western Carolinas and northeast Georgia outside of slight chance
PoPs over the Tennessee border counties Sunday evening into Sunday
night. CAD is expected to be fully entrenched across the area on
Sunday, leading to the coolest day of the forecast period, with most
locations being at or slightly below-normal for afternoon highs.

Any lingering wedge should gradually erode Monday into Tuesday,
allowing for temperatures to rebound back to 4-8 degrees above
normal by Tuesday. Our next mid/upper trough will be in the midst of
moving across the western CONUS Sunday and propagate to the central
CONUS Monday and Tuesday, while most of the guidance closes off into
a low as it marches east. At the surface, a deepening cyclone will
develop over the Central Plains, while a secondary low forms over
the Southern Plains and lower half of the MS Valley. An attendant
cold front will move east across these same areas as well. Ahead
of this system, the surface high over the northeast moves over the
northwestern Atlantic, while southerly return flow brings a better
moisture transport into the CWA. The overall timing and synoptic
progression still differs amongst all guidance, but there is at
least decent agreement for at least some precipitation by midweek
next week. Severe weather can`t be ruled out with this setup as
deep layer flow will be enhanced. However, guidance only show very
meager instability, if any at all as the cold front slides across
the CWA late Wednesday into Thursday. Details in regards to this
frontal system is still too far out for specifics.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals
through the TAF period. Scattered high clouds will continue to
stream overhead with light winds through the day out of the
northeast. Winds will increase overnight as a backdoor cold front
drops across the area from the northeast. Otherwise, a few patches
of mountain valley fog are apparent on pre-dawn satellite imagery,
but should remain outside of KAVL.

Outlook: Dry and VFR through at least Saturday, outside of mountain
valley fog. Rain and associated restrictions may return Sunday but
confidence is now very low as the forecast has trended drier.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

CAC/TW