902
FXUS62 KGSP 011807
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
107 PM EST Sun Nov 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated for the 18z aviation discussion.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Below-normal high temperatures today as cold air damming weakens
over the forecast area. Temperatures gradually warm above normal
through midweek ahead of the next frontal system.
2. Rain chances return during the latter half of the week as a
low pressure system approaches from the west.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Below-normal high temperatures today as cold air
damming weakens over the forecast area. Temperatures gradually
warm above normal through midweek ahead of the next frontal system.

Dry cold air damming regime continues across the region this
morning, but will steadily weaken as parent high pressure settles
into a less favorable position over the Mid-Atlantic by the end
of today. A region of convergence and isentropic lift along the
southern and western periphery of the ridge axis is resulting in
scattered-to-numerous light showers from central/north Georgia
through the TN Valley. Forecast models are generally handling this
precip rather poorly...and PoPs this morning have been increased to
20-30% across roughly the western third of our forecast area this
morning, with small PoPs becoming more confined to the mountains
this afternoon/tonight. Generally weak lift along with dry sub-cloud
layers will constrain the efficiency of rainfall rates...and any
locations that do receive rainfall through tonight will see little
more than a few hundredths. Otherwise, NE flow and mostly mid-level
cloud cover will result in maxes several degrees below normal in
most locations.

Surface high will steadily meander into the western Atlantic during
the early part of the week, bringing an end to cold air damming
by Tuesday at the latest, although a weakening ridge axis will
maintain some degree of easterly flow into mid-week. Precip chances
diminish late tonight into Monday as upglide shuts off around the
periphery of the low level ridge axis. Dry weather will continue
through at least Tue evening. Temperatures will steadily warm under
(at worst) partly cloudy skies, with max temps forecast to be more
than 5 degrees above climo by Tuesday.


Key message 2: Rain chances return during the latter half of the
week as a low pressure system approaches from the west.

A complex upper pattern evolves over the Conus by mid-week, with an
omega block developing across the western half of the country, and a
downstream ridge building along the East Coast. This makes for below
normal confidence in the sensible weather for the Days 4-7 time
frame, especially regarding precipitation chances. What is looking
likely is that temperatures will remain above normal...by 5-10
degrees through the end of the work week. Despite the complexity
of the upper pattern...global models are in broad agreement that
the upper low associated with the eastern part of the omega block
will eject into the mid/upper Miss Valley by Wed night. Attendant
occluded frontal band may approach our forecast area Wed night/Thu,
with PoPs increasing to at least likely levels across the western
half of the area. Global models indicates some weak instability
ahead of the boundary within modestly sheared environment, but the
occluded (and weakening) nature of the front is a limiting factor
for severe weather and excessive rainfall threats...although said
threats appear to be non-zero at this juncture.

Precip chances dwindle late in the work week, as frontal boundary
sweeps east and continues to weaken. Token small PoPs do linger
into Friday, especially across the mountains, as some showers
will remain possible as stacked cyclone passes north of the
region. Little-to-no temperature contrast is expected behind the
front, with above normal temperatures continuing into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Expect mostly dry, VFR conditions to continue
at all TAF sites thru the 18z TAF period. Thick high clouds will con-
tinue to stream across the fcst area thru most of the period, some of
which may lower into the low-VFR range overnight and into the morning
tomorrow. An few isolated showers cannot be ruled out across the Upstate
and mtns, however dry low-level air will likely result in virga falling
at most locations. I did include VCSH at KAVL for this afternoon and
early evening as they have the best chance of seeing any precip reach
the ground. Otherwise, outside the mtns winds will remain out of the NE
with low-end gusts expected this aftn (more so at the Upstate terminals).
At KAVL, winds will remain light thru the period and favor a SELY direc-
tion this aftn/evening and again tomorrow aftn.

Outlook: Mostly dry, VFR conditions should continue thru Tuesday. Rain
and associated restrictions are expected to return during the middle of
the week. With ample cloud cover expected over the next few days, mtn
valley fog should be limited.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

JDL/JPT/TW