555
FXUS62 KGSP 302301
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
701 PM EDT Fri Oct 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated the aviation discussion for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Mostly dry through Tuesday before rain chances return middle
of next week as a low pressure system approaches out of the west.
2. Highs peak today before much cooler highs return this weekend
into early next week as cold air damming develops. Warmer highs
return by Thursday as the low pressure system erodes the wedge.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Mostly dry through Tuesday before rain chances return
middle of next week as a low pressure system approaches out of the
west.

A backdoor cold front tracks across the GSP forecast area tonight
into early Saturday morning but will mainly lead to an increase in
wind speeds, with low-end gusts developing east of the mountains
late tonight into Saturday morning. Outside of this, dry high
pressure will be the dominate surface feature through early next
week as the southern periphery of the high remains extended over the
Carolinas. This surface ridge will act to shunt the bulk of the
moisture west and south of the GSP forecast area Sunday through
Tuesday. However, cannot entirely rule out some brief rain
developing across the North Carolina mountains and northeast Georgia
Sunday into Monday per the 12Z NAMNest, 12Z GFS, and 12Z NAM. The
00Z Euro also shows some rain developing across these zones, but
mainly Sunday into Sunday night. NBM slight chance PoPs across
portions of the North Carolina mountains and extreme northeast
Georgia look to follow the timing and coverage of the Euro for now.

Better rain chances still look to return by the middle of next week,
possibly lingering through early Friday, as a low pressure system
approaches out of the west. However, confidence on exact timing
remains low with global models still not in great agreement
regarding the exact track/evolution of this system.


Key message 2: Highs peak today before much cooler highs return this
weekend into early next week as cold air damming develops. Warmer
highs return by Thursday as the low pressure system erodes the
wedge.

High temperatures peak today, climbing into the upper 70s to lower
80s in the mountain valleys and east of the mountains thanks to an
upper ridge over the Southeast. Upper ridging gradually breaks down
this weekend as a shortwave tracks across the Carolinas and northern
Georgia. Meanwhile, at the surface, high pressure will center itself
over the Northeast allowing cold air damming to develop Saturday
into Sunday. The breaking down of the ridge combined with the
development of cold air damming will allow much cooler high
temperatures to return for the weekend. Highs should end up near to
just above normal Saturday and near to just below normal Sunday.
With no true erosion mechanism to scour out the wedge early next
week, cold air damming should remain in locked in place. Thus,
cooler highs should linger through at least Monday but may continue
into Tuesday. Right now the NBM has above normal high temperatures
returning by Tuesday but would not be surprised to see highs trend
lower with future updates as the NBM accounts for the lingering
wedge. Warmer high temperatures return mid to late week as the
aforementioned low pressure system tracks across the region and
finally scours out the wedge.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry and VFR through the 00Z TAF period. A
backdoor cold front brings increasing overnight into Saturday
morning. Low end gusts look likely across for most of the terminals.
KHKY and KAVL the exceptions. Outside of the mountains, wind speed
increases from the NE behind the front with gusts developing near or
shortly after daybreak. KAVL sees light N wind overnight become
light SE after daybreak. BKN to occasionally OVC cirrus will
continue through the period. Can`t rule out some mountain valley fog
in the typically more foggy Little TN Valley, but no fog expected at
KAVL.

Outlook: Mostly dry and VFR through Tuesday. Cannot entirely rule
out restrictions early next week but confidence is low. Otherwise,
rain and associated restrictions should return middle of next week.
With cloud cover expected this weekend into much of next week,
mountain valley fog formation should remain limited.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

AR/RWH