Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
111 FXUS62 KGSP 212339 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 739 PM EDT Fri Aug 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... PoP trends updated based on radar and latest forecast guidance. The aviation forecast was updated for the 00Z TAF issuance. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Second round of convection moving out of the mountains this evening. A few storms may be severe, producing damaging wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, and isolated flash flooding. 2. Drier weather returns Sunday through early next week, with afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances returning by midweek. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Second round of convection moving out of the mountains this evening. A few storms may be severe, producing damaging wind gusts, locally heavy rainfall, and isolated flash flooding. The first round of convection has moved east of the area but another round has developed and will move out of the mountains into the foothills and Piedmont through the evening. Instability and DCAPE will linger early this evening, so a strong to severe storm can`t be ruled out. The storms are showing decent speed to the southeast; however, they are very efficient rainfall producers. Therefore, some heavy rainfall and isolated flooding remains possible. Expect the bulk of the convection to move east of the area before midnight, but isolated showers may linger behind the stronger convection. Regardless of the exact locations and timing of convection, always remember to have multiple ways to get a warning. If you are outdoors and hear thunder or see lightning, seek shelter and never drive through flooded roadways. Key message 2: Drier weather returns Sunday through early next week, with afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances returning by midweek. Behind the front, drier and somewhat cooler air moves into the area by Sunday, shunting rain chances for a a few days. As a surface high migrates eastward over the Midwest and into the northeast portion of the country, reduced moisture and air from the north contribute to a welcomed break in heat as temperatures look to dip into the 80s for most of the area through the end the forecast period. As the high moves offshore by midweek, moisture slowly starts to return and increases rain chances once again. Mostly expecting the typical summertime afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity to resume. Overall, calmer and slightly cooler weather ahead. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: Second round of convection moving out of the mountains and into the foothills and piedmont at this time. It has cleared KAVL, although a shower is possible through early evening, and is on the doorstep of KHKY/KGSP/KGMU. Have short TEMPOs there. The convection may reach KCLT so PROB30 continues there. Least chance at KAND, so no TSRA mention for now. Guidance still insistent on MVFR then IFR cigs developing overnight. They also suggest mainly MVFR vsby, with IFR to LIFR at KAVL/KHKY. Show all of this in the TAFs. Slow improvement after daybreak with VFR all areas by 17Z. Only isolated convection expected Saturday, so no mention at this time. Southeasterly wind this evening becomes light and variable overnight, then light SW, NNW at KAVL, on Saturday. Outlook: No significant chance of convection until Wednesday. Mountain valley fog and low stratus is possible each morning. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ CP/RWH