485
FXUS62 KGSP 131802
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
202 PM EDT Thu Aug 13 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Heat Advisory issued for most of the Upstate and NE GA and part of
the CLT Metro for Friday. Updated the aviation discussion for the
18Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Heat Advisory for parts of the Upstate/northeast GA/Metro CLT
this afternoon. Heat Advisory Friday for most of the Upstate
and NE GA and part of the CLT Metro. Hot and humid weather is
expected to continue well into next week with triple digit heat
index values expected outside the mountains.
2. Scattered thunderstorms are possible each afternoon and evening
for the next seven days. A few could become severe with damaging
wind gusts and localized flash flooding any given day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Heat Advisory for parts of the Upstate/northeast
GA/Metro CLT this afternoon. Heat Advisory Friday for most of the
Upstate and NE GA and part of the CLT Metro. Hot and humid weather
is expected to continue well into next week with triple digit heat
index values expected outside the mountains.

An upper anticyclone settles near the area into the weekend. This
will lead to increasing thickness values and hot conditions with
highs in the mid to upper 90s outside of the mountains through the
forecast period. Monday looks to have the highest temps with some
locations near 100. Despite some mixing of dew points during the
afternoon, they will be high enough for heat index values to exceed
105 for many locations along and south of the I-85 corridor, and
possibly the I-40 corridor as well. Some locations south of I-85
could approach 110. For now, confidence is high enough to put most
of the Upstate and NE GA, and portions of the CLT metro in a Heat
Advisory for Friday. Given that only a small deviation in temps or
dew points makes a big change to heat index values, everyone should
stay up to date with the latest forecasts as Heat Advisories and
possibly an Excessive Heat Warning may be needed through the end of
the forecast period.


Key message 2: Scattered thunderstorms are possible each afternoon
and evening for the next seven days. A few could become severe with
damaging wind gusts and localized flash flooding any given day.

Scattered showers and storms are moving across the mountains and
will spread out into the Piedmont through the afternoon. A few of
the storms could become severe in the very unstable air mass and
relatively steep low level lapse rates.

Despite the building upper anticyclone, the MCS track remains near
our area. This will allow daily MCV to move near the area helping
kick off diurnal convection. A weak boundary may also drop south
into the area Saturday increasing the diurnal convective coverage on
that day. Saturday also has a better chance of severe storms with
the better forcing interacting with the very unstable air mass,
although a few severe storms will be possible on Friday. The
boundary dissipates Sunday with a return to more typical diurnal
convective and severe storm chances. Any given afternoon/eve will
also have the potential for some localized flash flooding.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Convection already ongoing across the
mountains so starting with TEMPOs at KAVL and KHKY where impacts are
more likely. Have added or started PROB30s a little earlier elsewhere
given the radar trends and latest guidance. Winds have been light
and generally NW, W at KAND, so kept winds in that range into early
evening. Expect generally high level convective debris overnight,
but did add MVFR vsby and SCT IFR clouds at KAVL where restrictions
are more likely but still uncertain. Conditions on Friday will be
similar to today, so PROB30 at KCLT where the longer duration TAF is
in place. Light W to NW winds as well.

Outlook: Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon
with flight restrictions possible for low stratus and fog each
morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for GAZ018-026-028-
     029.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for GAZ026-028-029.
NC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for NCZ070>072-082.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ071-072-082.
SC...Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Friday for SCZ008>014-019-
     104>109.
     Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ009-011-014-
     019.

&&

$$

RWH