583
FXUS62 KGSP 161049
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
649 AM EDT Wed Sep 16 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes were made to the forecast.

The aviation discussion was updated to reflect the recent 12Z TAF
issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Warm late summer weather will continue into early next week
with temperatures at or above normal. The situation becomes
unsettled over the weekend with a series of weak fronts affecting
our area into next week, though the threat for significant weather
remains low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Warm late summer weather will continue into early next
week with temperatures at or above normal. The situation becomes
unsettled over the weekend with a series of weak fronts affecting
our area into next week, though the threat for significant weather
remains low.

We begin with an interesting almost wedge-look alike situation
today, with a positively-tilted upper ridge emanating from the
mid/upper anticyclone still centered over the TN Valley region
supporting a weak sfc high off the Mid-Atlantic/southern New
England coastal regions. This weak sfc high isn`t in a great spot
and there won`t be any forcing other than a light easterly flow,
so any cold air damming signal should get overwhelmed by late
morning. Once the sun peeks out, temps will rise above normal.

The upper anticyclone will continue to control our weather as
it retrogrades to the southern Plains and Ozark Plateau region
through Friday. As this happens, the atmosphere will become a
bit more favorable for diurnal convection, mainly limited to the
mountains on Thursday, but then with chances across the whole
region on Friday. Temps should peak back up into the 90s outside
the mtns, but far from heat advisory criteria. The weekend is
looking perhaps a bit more unsettled as there is some indication
that a sfc high moving across eastern Canada to New England would
push another back-door cold front into our area by Saturday. This
boundary could drop temps back down into the 80s and be a focus for
more numerous showers and storms mainly in the afternoon/evening,
though for now the potential for severe weather looks low. The
situation gets more uncertain from Sunday onward as moisture
increases with a weak upper low along the northern Gulf Coast and
less of an influence of upper ridging across our area. There could
be a reinforcing front moving down from the north as well. The NBM
shows temps dropping down into the lower 80s for highs on Wednesday,
but confidence in that happening is low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Low-end VFR to MVFR stratocu continues to
linger across the area, which will impact terminals through at least
mid-morning. Guidance hasn`t handled this development well, but low-
level moisture and continued easterly flow should help to keep this
cloud deck around. MVFR cigs are mainly along the Blue Ridge
Escarpment. However, cigs have struggled to lower to MVFR at the TAF
sites, so took out any mention of BKN/OVC MVFR cigs outside of
KAVL/KHKY through mid-morning. Cloud cover should gradually lift and
scatter a few hours after sunrise and allow all terminals to return
to VFR by late morning. Some mountain valley fog and low stratus has
developed, but should stay away from KAVL this morning. Winds will
be light through the period at 4-8 kts out of the east to northeast.
Winds may trend more east to southeasterly by the evening. KAVL will
maintain a northwest component through the morning with some
potential of flipping to downvalley component with a south-southeast
direction by the afternoon. Uncertainties remain for another low
cloud deck overnight tonight, so will have to monitor throughout the
day to see if possible restrictions return.

Outlook: Shower and thunderstorm chances with associated
restrictions increase going into the weekend. Mountain valley fog
and low stratus will be possible each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

CAC/PM