189
FXUS62 KGSP 041126
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
626 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain amounts have trended slightly higher for Wednesday night.

The aviation forecast was updated to reflect the recent 12Z TAF
issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Unseasonably warm and humid conditions are expected for the
remainder of the week, with shower and thunderstorm chances
increasing today and lingering through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Unseasonably warm and humid conditions are expected
for the remainder of the week, with shower and thunderstorm chances
increasing today and lingering through Friday.

A modestly active period ensues through at least Friday as trough
located west of the area begins to lift toward the northeast,
increasing rain and thunderstorm chances. For Wednesday, a weakening
frontal boundary approaches from the west with showers and
thunderstorms. Ahead of the front, some instability builds in during
the afternoon but remains limited due to the anticipated cloud
cover. Guidance also hints at weak shear as the front occludes and
moves into the area. These less than favorable factors decreases
confidence in severe weather coverage. However, cannot rule out an
isolated strong to severe storm later today into tonight. Given the
southeasterly surface winds, there could be an isolated flash flood
risk especially along the Escarpment and foothills. Confidence
remains low on in this though. Rain amounts vary in range with this
frontal passage with 0.25"-1.5", with the higher amounts likely in
the far western NC mountains and portions of Upstate SC and
northeast GA.

Behind the front, the CWA remains in a steady southeasterly surface
wind regime, funneling moisture into the region and keeping rain
chances around. Aloft, a secondary low weakens from the breakdown of
the decaying omega block and swings toward the Ohio/TN Valley. Rain
chances look to be in the 30-40% for Thursday and increase in the NC
Piedmont for Friday as the last bit of forcing pushes through.
Guidance has a 20-30% chance for rain totals of 1" or higher for
Friday in the eastern zones, which means confidence is lower that
rain amounts with the second wave are minimal. Behind this last
system, drier air pushes in as surface high pressure spills from the
north and spreads into the region.

By Saturday, forecast looks to dry out and have cooler temps closer
to normal. Overnight temps for the weekend and into the beginning of
next week dip into the 30s for the mountains and upper 30s and 40s
elsewhere.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A very busy TAF period is ongoing and will
continue through much of the forecast period. A cold front is
approaching the area from the west and drawing moisture into the
region. This has fueled the development of widespread MVFR to IFR
stratus this morning that will persist through much of the morning
hours. A few instances of patchy fog are also ongoing, but should
remain fairly limited in light of more widespread cloud cover. A few
terminals may see a brief return to VFR this afternoon as ceilings
slowly lift, but this will be rather short lived as a band of
showers and a few TSRA push into the area. This precipitation will
move through this evening into the overnight bringing associated
visibility and ceiling restrictions. Behind the precipitation,
ceilings are forecast to crash again with more widespread MVFR and
IFR heading into Thursday morning.

Outlook: Consistent improvement is not expected until Friday, when
the cold front moves to our east and ushers in VFR conditions for
the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

CP/TW