408
FXUS62 KGSP 140244
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1044 PM EDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Seasonably warm and humid weather, with numerous showers and storms
each afternoon and evening, can be expected through the weekend. A
warming trend will occur next week, and daily showers and storms
will continue through at least Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Key Messages:

1) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to linger
into the overnight with heavy rain and isolated flash flooding
the main threat.

2) More showers and thunderstorms are expected during the after-
noon and evening on Saturday.

3) Warm and humid conditions will continue east of the mountains.

As of 10:15 PM EDT Friday: A broad area of sct showers and t-storms
continues to make its way eastward across the region. The better
coverage remains just to our south, with a good portion of our CWA
nearly free of convection at the present time. Nonetheless, we may
see an increase in coverage over the next few hrs before activity
eventually winds down overnight and into the morning. It appears any
severe threat is basically nil at this point, but the hydro threat
remains.

Otherwise, the active and humid pattern will continue as an upper
low/trof centered over the central plains slides eastward thru the
period. Ahead of the low, a broad warm sector with an abundance of
moisture advection from the south, will keep the Southeast in an
unsettled pattern. For Saturday, essentially rinse and repeat as
the upper low/trof weakens over the Ohio/Tennessee Valley and gets
absorbed into the main upper flow. An weak surface front dissolves
as it approaches our area later on Saturday and likely won`t have
an affect on our sensible wx. Like the past few days, we can expect
sct showers and thunderstorms in the aftn and evening. The severe
potential once again looks minimal, but we may see some stronger
storms and I wouldn`t rule out a svr storm or two. The main threat
will likely be locally heavy rainfall and the potential for isolated
flash flooding. Temperatures on Saturday will be similar to Friday
with highs near-normal for mid-June.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Summer-Like Pattern Continues

2) Showers and Thunderstorms Develop Each Afternoon and Evening

3) Warm and Humid Each Day

Sfc high over the Desert Southwest and Bermuda high over the western
Atlantic will keep warm, moist SW`ly flow in place over the
Southeast through the short term. These two high pressure systems
will work together to funnel in moisture from the Gulf allowing
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms to continue into
early next week. Dewpoints in the lower 70s are expected each day
across the mountain valleys and east of the mountains, which will
keep the humidity around. Although sfc instability will range from
1,500-2,000 J/kg each afternoon/evening, deep layer shear will
remain low (~15-20 kts). Thus, the potential for any severe storms
will be fairly low. A few strong, sub-severe storms can be expected
during peak heating each day but we cannot entirely rule out an
isolated severe storm or two. Any storm that manages to become
severe would be capable of producing damaging wind gusts. With PWAT
values above the 90th percentile for this time of year (1.5-2.0
inches) expected, locally heavy rain will be possible with any
convection that develops through the period. Isolated instances of
flash flooding cannot be entirely ruled out, especially for areas
that see multiple rounds of convection or that received heavy rain
the previous day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Hot and Humid, Especially East of the Mountains

2) Daily Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Continue

Pattern does not change much through the majority of the long term
as high pressure remains over the Desert Southwest and as the
Bermuda high remains over the western Atlantic. This will keep low-
level SW`ly flow around across the Southeast through at least
Thursday, allowing humid conditions to stick around. Temperatures
east of the mountains will climb into the upper 80s to lower 90s
each afternoon through Friday, with dewpoints east of the mountains
ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s each day. Daily shower and
thunderstorms will continue through the period thanks to the influx
of Gulf moisture. A cold front will approach out of the NW late
Thursday, possibly tracking across the forecast area on Friday.
Dewpoints should drop behind the front leading to less humid
conditions on Friday but with this being towards the end of the
forecast period, confidence on the timing of the front is low at
this time. The severe weather threat will remain low through the
period but a few strong, sub-severe storms are possible during peak
heating each day. However, an isolated severe storm or two cannot be
entirely ruled out. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary hazard
with any severe storms that manage to develop. The heavy rain threat
should decrease a bit as PWATs drop to roughly 1.0-1.5 inches
through most of the long term.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: This active stretch will continue thru the
00z taf period and beyond as we remain under a moist, summertime
regime across the region. Most sites have a VCTS for the first few
hrs of the period, with a PROB30 for weak TSRA thru the overnight.
Expect another round of cig (and to a lesser extent) visby restric-
tions overnight and into the morning at most sites. Most of the IFR
restrictions are carried in TEMPO groups with prevailing MVFR. Expect
slow improvement thru the morning as the lower cloud decks will likely
linger thru late morning. Another round of sct convection is expected
across the fcst area Saturday afternoon/evening, with activity likely
lingering well into the evening. This was handled with PROB30s for TSRA
at all taf sites beginning around 18z tomorrow. Otherwise, winds are
expected to go light to calm later tonight and then pick up again from
the S to SW tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook: Mainly diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected each
afternoon/evening thru early next week. Late night and early morning
fog and low stratus restrictions will be possible each day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CP
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JPT