806
FXUS62 KGSP 301807
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
207 PM EDT Sat May 30 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated aviation discussion with the 18z TAF issuance.

Conditions are trending drier after Tuesday and into next weekend.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. A few scattered showers and thunderstorms possible through
this evening. Cooler and drier weather returns Sunday before rain
chances increase Monday.
2. Drier and cooler than normal weather after Tuesday with slight
rain chances possible toward the end of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: A few scattered showers and thunderstorms possible
through this evening. Cooler and drier weather returns Sunday before
rain chances increase Monday.

An area of high pressure off to the norther continues to expand
southward, bringing a backdoor cold front through the area tonight
and into Sunday. Ahead of it, a few showers and thunderstorms are
expected, especially along the frontal boundary as it moves
south/southwest. The overall environment ahead of the front is
rather benign, but some instability during the afternoon hours
around peak heating time could contribute to a few storms producing
cloud to ground lightning. Model guidance shows very weak mid level
and upper flow with the boundary layer almost calm. Additionally,
DCAPE is expected to be low, less than 400 J/kg, indicating a rather
low chance for any microbursts. Overall, anything that does manage
to form this afternoon and evening ahead of the front should be
short lived and produce minimal hazards.

As the front continues to move through tonight, drier and cooler air
arrive for Sunday. Model guidance has the boundary stalling over the
far southern locations of the CWA, making way for a slight chance
(15-35%)of precipitation. Cannot rule out a brief shower Sunday, but
confidence is low. By Monday, rain chances increase again as the
airmass modifies. Expect temperatures to remain somewhat cooler than
normal.


Key message 2: Drier and cooler than normal weather after Tuesday
with slight rain chances possible toward the end of next week.

Once increased rain chances dissipate Monday night, the general
pattern looks to keep the area in a drier pattern for the majority
of next week and into the start of the weekend. High pressure
returns from the north and spreads southward, shunting the majority
of rain chances once again. Long range models suggest a spin up of a
coastal low off the Carolinas toward mid week. At this time, the
high pressure looks to dominate and it would not have any impact to
this area. This will be monitored, mainly for rain concerns east of
the mountains. Should high pressure weaken, it could allow for this
area to shift westward into the eastern fringe of the CWA and
increase rain chances. If high pressure remains steady, it would
shunt rain chances. But either way, not looking at anything
impactful at this time. Expect temperatures to remain cooler and
slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions are expected to prevail
through the majority of the TAF period. A few scattered showers and
TSRA this afternoon and evening ahead of a cold front moving in from
the N/NE. For this, a TEMPO for TSRA at KGSP/KGMU/KAND from 18z-22z
as confidence is higher during that time. As the front moves
through, expect a wind shift out of the N/NE at all sites. Low end
gusts of 15-20kts are possible overnight at most sites east of the
mountains, but should diminish after 12z-13z. Winds start to become
more SE toward Sunday afternoon.

Outlook: Another round of showers and thunderstorms are possible
Monday. A drier pattern should return for the rest of the workweek.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

CP