098
FXUS62 KGSP 142334
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
734 PM EDT Mon Sep 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Rain chances were increased for tonight, especially along the
escarpment and foothills.

The aviation discussion was updated for the 00z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Relatively warm late summer weather will persist through the
week, with low risk for significant weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Relatively warm late summer weather will persist
through the week, with low risk for significant weather.

The weather is still looking fairly quiet thru the week with a
fairly low chance for any high impact weather. We have a back-door
cold front moving down from the north later this afternoon/evening
which could help produce a few showers, but that`s about it.

An upper ridge builds eastward over our region over the next 24
to 48 hrs and helps keep the convective environment generally
unfavorable/suppressed with most of the area remaining dry. With
the fropa later in the day today, we get one more hot day with
high temps 5 to 10 degrees above normal. We still have the poten-
tial for some weak, dry, cold air damming as broad surface high
pressure moves from New England on Tuesday to a position off the
coast of New England and the Maritime Provinces on Wed. There
could be some shallow moisture within the ELY low-level flow on
Tues that helps keep temperatures around normal with some increase
in low clouds, but there will be minimal forcing for precip and
any appreciable moisture doesn`t hang around for long. This should
result in temps warming back above normal on Wed, with highs back
in the lower 90s east of the mtns by the end of the week. As the
airmass modifies and warms, we expect a return of high elevation
scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms from Thurs thru next
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: The forecast stratus off VFR at all terminals
as a backdoor cold front approaches from the northeast. As the front
pushes into the area overnight, a plume of moisture will pool ahead
of the boundary and help to promote the development of at least
isolated showers along with low stratus. TEMPO groups have
introduced to account for any associated restrictions. Showers
should dissipate within several hours of sunrise along with lifting
and scattering of any low stratus. This will bring a return to VFR
conditions by mid to late morning. Winds will be out of the
northeast and could be as high as 9-12kts with a few isolated low-
end gusts not out of the question. Winds will relax through the
afternoon behind the front.

Outlook: Mostly dry conditions are expected to persist through the
middle of the week. Shower chances and associated restrictions
increase later in the week. Mountain valley fog and low stratus is
possible each morning through the week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

JPT/TW