463
FXUS62 KGSP 031724
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1224 PM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...
The cool wedge of high pressure will diminish tonight leading to
dry and warmer conditions return Sunday. Temperatures will trend
well above normal for most of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1200 PM Saturday...

Key Message #1: Drier conditions return this afternoon as a low
pressure system pulls away from the region but mostly cloudy skies
and cooler temperatures stick around thanks to cold air damming.

Cold air damming remains in place today keeping mostly cloudy skies
and cooler temperatures around this afternoon. Highs should still
end up a few degrees above normal across the western half of the
forecast area, but will end up near normal to just below normal
across the eastern half of the forecast area. Rain chances will
gradually taper off this afternoon as a low pressure system pulls
away from the region. Dry conditions will return by mid to late
afternoon area-wide.

Key Message #2: Patchy Fog develops overnight thanks to lingering
cold air damming and decreasing clouds.

Cold air damming lingers through tonight with cloud cover gradually
decreasing in coverage. Lingering low-level moisture combined with
better radiational cooling conditions will allow patchy fog to
develop overnight into daybreak Sunday. Guidance has been gradually
backing off on the potential for widespread dense fog as well as the
coverage of patchy fog. It appears that northeast Georgia, the South
Carolina Upstate, and locations along/near the Blue Ridge Escarpment
will have the best chance to see fog develop.

Key Message #3: Dry and warmer Sunday as high pressure builds in
from the northwest.

850 mb flow turns northwest as a surface high builds in from the
northwest on Sunday. Northwest flow will act to scour out what`s
left of the cold air damming wedge early Sunday morning. Dry
conditions are expected with warmer temperatures returning thanks to
mostly sunny skies. Highs on Sunday will end up ~5-10 degrees above
normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1100 AM Saturday:

Key message: Dry Monday and Tuesday with a warming trend.

Atop the SE CONUS, rising upper heights and developing zonal flow
aloft will be seen as llvl sfc ridge axis along the Atlantic
seaboard gives way to a warming llvl swly flow.  Monday is slated to
be the coolest day of the work week with maximums "only" a category
above the early January climo.  Lower elevations remain progged to
warm solidly into the 60s for afternoon highs on Tuesday.

Otherwise, sensible wx on Monday will feature mixed sun and clouds
mainly due to developing moist llvl upglide coincident with the onset
of the warming return flow.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1145 AM Saturday:

Key message 1: Temperatures remaining above normal through the
period.

Abnormally high heights are progged to linger atop the SE CONUS into
next Saturday.  An extended period of SW flow will keep llvl thermal
axis poking north into the Carolinas supporting lower elevation high
temperatures in the 60s everyday.  Coincident with the potential
increase in moisture during the latter half of the period, very mild
nighttime minimums are expected, with Friday and Saturday low
temperatures near our normal early January highs.

Sensible weather through the first half of the period remains
limited as southern plains energy lifts into the Mississippi valley
resulting in downstream ridge axis poking north into the Southern
Appalachians.

Key message 2: Shower chances ticking upward Thursday night through
Saturday coincident with frontal zone inching closer.

It seems like forcing for any showers starting later on Thursday
will be driven by weak upglide as better larger scale forcing and
deeper moisture may not translate into the region until later on
Friday. Next Saturday is shaping up to a mild and showery day as
frontal zone sags slowly into the forecast area.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Seeing mainly VFR across the terminals
with KCLT still reporting -RA as of 18Z. -RA will gradually taper
off in the next hour or so. Dry conditions are expected through the
rest of the 18Z TAF period. Cigs may drop to MVFR levels later this
afternoon into this evening but confidence is low. Thus, went with
TEMPOs to account for MVFR cigs through 22Z. TEMPOs may need to be
extended with future AMDs if MVFR materializes. Wind direction will
remain calm to light and VRB at KAVL through late tonight before
picking up out of the NW prior to daybreak Sunday. Winds east of the
mountains will remain NE through most of the period outside of calm
winds overnight. Guidance has been steadily backing off on
restrictions overnight into daybreak Sunday, with KAND having the
best potential to see at IFR cigs/vsbys develop. Cloud cover will
gradually decrease this evening into tonight, allowing patchy MVFR
fog to develop across most terminals (with the exception of KCLT).
Confidence on vsbys and cigs tonight into daybreak Sunday is low as
cigs/vsbys could end up being more pessimistic compared to what the
latest trends are showing.

Outlook: VFR returns after daybreak Sunday. Dry and VFR conditions
will linger through the middle of next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...CSH
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...AR