Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
307 FXUS62 KGSP 132327 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 627 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains over the area for the next several days as temperatures warm through the weekend. Rain chances increase over the mountains on Sunday and into the middle of next week as a series of weak fronts move through. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 620 PM Thu: Made an effort to touch up dewpoint trends per afternoon obs which reflected appreciable mixing; little rebound in values is expected thru the evening. Tonight, with only patchy cirrus overhead and an increasingly light N wind, lows should bottom out in the mid- to upper-30s across the low terrain and mountain valleys...up to a category cooler than lows this morning owing to better radiative cooling. Finally, on Friday, as the center of surface high pressure noses to our south, winds will toggle around to the SW. Daytime mixing will be hampered by a developing subsidence inversion Friday afternoon, and the onset of very weak moisture advection by mid- day will further restrict the afternoon dewpoint crash. Which is not to say it won`t be dry and a tad breezy again, but that in general mixing should be less- efficient on Friday than today. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 1112 AM EST Thursday: Looks like most of the fcst area will enjoy fair and warm weather for the weekend, but there is the small matter of some upslope cloudiness and rain potential along the TN border upslope zones Saturday night and Sunday. The problem will be that some modest moisture return takes place from the western Gulf on Friday into Saturday, and this moisture moves northward ahead of a front that is dropping down from the central Plains/Midwest. The front should cross our region on Sunday with the overall broad WNW flow aloft. Assuming the moisture makes it far enough north, it would get run upslope after midnight Saturday night in enough quantity to result in some precip near the TN border. Fortunately, temps are warm enough that it would only be rain. The front goes through in the morning and then we dry out by the end of the day on Sunday. As per usual with weak forcing and shallow moisture at this time of year, precip chances east of the mtns will remain low. And don`t call it a cold front, because the high temps on Sunday east of the mtns actually climb a few more degrees compared to Saturday because of downslope warming. More of a dry front. So, the temps should be on the order of ten degrees or more above normal both days. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 1152 AM EST Thursday: Once we get out into early next week, the situation gets more complicated as the blocking pattern in the east finally relents. An initial system over the Southwestern US gets kicked out and rides up and over the persistent ridge on the east side of the Rockies on Monday and gets sucked into the confluent WNW flow toward the Mid-Atlantic Coast. The models often struggle with the timing and N-S track of such systems, so confidence isn`t especially good after what should be a dry Monday. However, the pattern doesn`t lend itself to much in the way of Gulf moisture return, so either way the better chances for precip will be over the westerly upslope parts of the NC mountains starting Monday night into Tuesday, and places east of the Blue Ridge shouldn`t get their hopes up. A boundary should be pushed across the region on Tuesday-ish. By mid-week, the pattern finally starts to become progressive again, so there`s the prospect of the boundary returning/reactivating as a warm front. By Wednesday into Thursday, there is a great deal of difference in the model solutions as to the timing and strength of the system coming east across the southern Plains/lower MS Valley regions, so all bets are off. But, there is a better chance of Gulf moisture return mid-week onward which would suggest some kind of better precip chances lurking out on Day 7 and late in the week. Fortunately, temps will remain on the order of five degrees above normal across the region, with no chance of anything wintry across the mountains. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR under only patchy cirrus. Winds will be predominantly northerly where still blowing tonight, but otherwise decoupling will bring mainly calm or light/VRB winds. Not out of the question fog will form in the SW NC mountain valleys where the decoupling occurs, but KAVL is not likely to be affected. Winds mainly come up from the SW in late morning and remain there to the end of the period, but there could be periods of light SE winds early on, approx 15-17z. VRB winds possible at times Fri at KAVL also. Outlook: Dry and VFR conditions generally expected through the remainder of the week. Mountain/river valley fog or low stratus could return by Saturday morning as moisture begins to return to the area. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...JCW/MPR SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...JCW