167
FXUS62 KGSP 151829
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
229 PM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Hot and humid with daily showers and thunderstorms expected through
most of the week. A cold front pushes across the area early Friday,
bringing drier and less humid conditions behind it heading into the
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Key Messages:

1) Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible especially across the
NC Piedmont

2) Warmer and humid east of the mountains

3) Showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening on
Monday

As of 155 PM EDT Sunday: Another unsettled day as the CWA remains
under the influence of a weak trough moving over the area. What is
left of the trough translates across the CWA and brings a chance of
some more pop-up showers and thunderstorms. Meanwhile, the western
edge of the high to the east allows for a broad warm sector with
plenty of advected moisture from the south. Synoptic forcing remains
weak, but given the increased PWATs and instability, should be
enough to get a few storms going, especially over the northern
portion of the area. Though a few storms are possible, the high
continues to amplify and could act as a suppressor, keeping stronger
storms at bay. Guidance from the CAMs suggest convection remains
concentrated toward the NC Piedmont this afternoon and evening.
Cannot rule out a pop-up storm over the rest of the CWA though. Same
idea for Monday as the remnant trough continues to weaken and gets
absorbed into the general flow aloft. PoP chances increase again
during the afternoon, especially across the mountains. So rinse and
repeat as the typical summertime pattern emerges. Isolated and
locally heavy rainfall possible with any developing storm.
Temperatures warm into the upper 80s outside the mountains. A few
locations in the southern zones could also reach the low 90s. Tis
the season.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Hot and Humid Each Day with Above Normal Temps and Breezy SW Winds

2) Heat Indices will Climb into the Mid 90s to Lower 100s East of
the Mountains Each Afternoon

3) Diurnal Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Continue

Bermuda high will remain over the western Atlantic keeping moist
SW`ly flow over the Southeast through the short term. This will
allow hot and humid conditions to stick around, especially east of
the mountains. Highs each afternoon will climb into the upper 80s to
lower 90s with heat indices reaching into the mid 90s to lower 100s
east of the mountains. Breezy SW`ly winds will develop each day
which will bring some relief from the heat and humidity. Mainly
diurnal showers and thunderstorms can be expected through the period.
Although sfc instability will range from 1,500-2,000 J/kg during
peak heating each day, deep layer shear will only range from 15-20
kts limiting the severe storm potential. However, an isolated severe
storm or two cannot be entirely ruled out each afternoon/evening.
Any storm that manages to become severe will be capable of producing
damaging wind gusts. PWATS ranging from 1.5 to 2 inches will keep
the heavy rainfall/isolated flash flooding threat around with any
convection that develops through the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Diurnal Shower and Thunderstorm Chances Linger through Early
Friday Ahead of a Cold Front

2) Drier and Less Humid Conditions Return Briefly Friday into
Saturday Behind a Cold Front

3) Storm Chances as well as the Heat and Humidity Return Sunday

Bermuda high pressure remains parked over the western Atlantic
through the period. Meanwhile, a cold front will approach out of the
northwest on Thursday before tracking across the forecast area
Thursday night into early Friday morning. The cold front will push
south of the area the rest of Friday into the weekend. Thursday will
be another hot and humid day but breezy SW winds will return
bringing some relief. Shower and thunderstorm chances will linger
ahead of the front Thursday into early Friday morning before drier
and less humid conditions return behind the front later Friday into
Saturday. Diurnal convection, as well as the heat and humidity,
looks to return by Sunday. PWAT values will remain elevated through
early Friday so the heavy rainfall/isolated flash flooding threat
will continue ahead of and along the front. The severe weather
potential will remain low through the long term thanks to weak wind
shear and despite good destabilization each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Mostly VFR conditions to start off the TAF
period as lower stratus has lifted out of the area. Another day for
isolated showers and TSRA but coverage is limited. Confidence is low
for coverage outside of the KHKY/KCLT area, so will continue a TEMPO
for those locations this afternoon and a PROB30 elsewhere. SCT/BKN
clouds remain with some cu this afternoon, but should be in the VFR
or high-end MVFR range through the evening and into the overnight
hours. As with the past few days, expect IFR/LIFR with low stratus
and BR/FG to develop at the mountain terminals KHKY/KAVL between 08z-
12z. Monday could see a few more showers and TSRA, so another round
of PROB30 for the afternoon at most sites.

Outlook: Showers and thunderstorms are expected each day thru early
next week. Late night and early morning fog and low stratus
restrictions possible each day.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...CP
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...CP