700
FXUS62 KGSP 010956
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
556 AM EDT Tue Sep 1 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation forecast was updated to reflect the impending 12Z
TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Hot and muggy conditions continue for most of this week. Relief
may arrive by next weekend.
2. Dry conditions continue on Tuesday. Isolated showers and a few
storms can`t be ruled out over the NC mountains each afternoon
this week, but coverage and intensity should remain limited.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Hot and muggy conditions continue for most of this
week.  Relief may arrive by next weekend.

A ~596dm upper anticyclone remains centered over the eastern
Ozarks, with elevated upper heights and associated subsidence
extending well into the Carolinas.  Generally clear conditions were
observed across the area at the time of this writing.  Think that
radiative cooling through the coming hours will permit some fog
and low stratus development, mainly in the NC mountain valleys,
but otherwise expect quiescent conditions for the overnight.

The forecast for the week has not changed much.  Strong subtropical
ridging is expected to remain established over the Southeast
for the entire week, with very little evolution in the synoptic
pattern through Friday.  Each afternoon will feature dangerous
triple-digit heat index values east of the mountains.  We don`t
quite hit Heat Advisory criteria in the forecast for Tuesday,
but by Wednesday and Thursday, confidence is increasing that at
least some locations will be under the gun.

Long-range ensembles have begun to coalesce around a
Saturday-afternoon-to-evening timeframe for a cold front to cross
the area.  It still looks like it`ll put more of a dent in dewpoints
than temperatures, but may nonetheless provide some relief from
the heat and humidity.


Key message 2: Dry conditions continue on Tuesday.  Isolated showers
and a few storms can`t be ruled out over the NC mountains each
afternoon this week, but coverage and intensity should remain
limited.

Not much change to the convective forecast for this week; a
subsidence air mass should limit any convection to the ridgetops
each afternoon and keep lapse rates poor enough that only isolated
showers and weak thunderstorms appear likely through Thursday.

Long-range ensembles continue to depict a cold front crossing
the area at the end of the week, but have backed off to more of
a Saturday afternoon, where previously at least a chunk of LREF
members featured a Friday afternoon FROPA.  Aloft, it should be
accompanied by a compact shortwave dipping down out of the Ohio
Valley and crossing the Carolinas Saturday afternoon/evening.
This should result in an improved convective environment compared
to the rest of this week as lapse rates improve and upper flow
improves marginally, so we`ll need to continue to monitor this
for any potential severe weather.  Confidence, of course, remains
quite low at this point.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Mostly clear across the area this morning,
with the exception of the mountain valleys, which as expected
are socked into patchy fog and low stratus.  Still expect
restrictions to remain confined to the mountain valleys (and
perhaps a few locations in the foothills) and scatter out quickly
after daybreak.  Mostly clear conditions expected today, with an
afternoon cu field but little to no convective potential, even
in the mountains.  Should any showers develop, they`ll likely be
isolated to the ridgetops.  Winds will start out light and from
the N, eventually toggling to the S this afternoon and evening.
Mostly clear conditions persist tonight.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered mountain convection expected
through Friday, then expanding to all areas for the weekend. Fog
and low stratus will be possible each morning, especially in the
mountain valleys.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

MPR