Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
Issued by NWS Greer, SC
357 FXUS62 KGSP 021916 AFDGSP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC 216 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Temperatures have trended slightly cooler for Sunday and early next week. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1. Cold air damming will steadily weaken over our area, allowing temperatures to warm back above normal over the next few days. 2. Rain chances return Wednesday into Thursday as a frontal system moves through our area. && .DISCUSSION... Key message 1: Cold air damming will steadily weaken over our area, allowing temperatures to warm back above normal over the next few days. The cold air damming pattern will continue to weaken across our area today/tonight as its parent surface high slowly moves off the Mid- Atlantic Coast. An embedded mid/upper level shortwave will translate overhead today and move offshore early Tuesday. This setup has been producing isolated/scattered light showers across our area since yesterday, but with the mid/upper lvl support moving east and the associated isentropic upglide diminishing, the showers have ended across our CWA. Nonetheless, a weakening ridge axis will maintain some degree of ELY low-level flow across our area into mid-week. This should result in dry weather thru at least Tuesday evening. Temperatures will steadily warm thru Tuesday, with highs expected to reach the mid to upper 70s across most of our lower terrain on Tuesday. Key message 2: Rain chances return Wednesday into Thursday as a frontal system moves through our area. A complex upper pattern will set up over the CONUS by mid-week with an omega block developing over the western/central CONUS, and a downstream ridge building along the East Coast. At the sfc, a moist occluded front will gradually approach our area from the west by early Wednesday, and slowly make its way thru the area over the next 24 to 48 hrs. In response, PoPs increase to at least likely across the western half of our fcst area by late Wednesday and peak early Thursday with precip likely across most of our area. Most of the latest guidance still has some amount of weak instabi- lity ahead of the frontal boundary on Wednesday and more instability across our area Thurs as the boundary moves thru. They also depict moderate amounts of bulk shear over our area, however the better shear early Thurs does not appear to line up very well with the higher instability Thurs afternoon. Nonetheless, a minimal severe threat still appears to exist for our fcst area. With regards to excessive rainfall/flooding potential, the current fcst has most of our CWA getting less than an inch of rain from this system, however portions of the Escarpment could get significantly more QPF from the enhanced upslope flow expected over those areas. At present, WPC has a day 3 Marginal Risk area over our western zones late Wed thru early Thurs. This seems reasonable based on our current fcst. Otherwise, a secondary/trailing cold front produces another uptick in precip chances early Friday, but any precip amounts should be minimal on Friday. Little temperature change is expected behind the front on Friday, with above normal temperatures continuing into the weekend. The fcst is trending cooler for Sunday and early next week, with temperatures now fcst to drop slightly below normal early next week. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... At KCLT and elsewhere: All TAF sites have returned to VFR over the past few hours, as sct to bkn lower-end VFR clouds linger over the Upstate and NC mtns. Expect the rest of the 18z TAF period to be dry and mostly VFR. The main caveat is the potential for MVFR-level stratus to spread back over the area from the south tomorrow morning. Still expect the lower clouds to remain sct at most of our sites, however I included a TEMPO for MVFR cigs at KAND and KAVL in the 10 to 14z timeframe as most of the current guidance depicts better cloud cover over those areas. Otherwise, outside the mtns, winds will remain ENE to NE thru the TAF period with speeds diminishing later tonight/ overnight. At KAVL, winds will favor a S/SSE direction thru the period, going light and VRB to calm tonight. Outlook: Mostly dry, VFR conditions should continue through Tues. Rain and associated restrictions are expected to return Wed into Thurs as a front crosses the region. With ample cloud cover expec- ted over the next few days, mountain valley fog should be limited. && .GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... GA...None. NC...None. SC...None. && $$ JPT