770
FXUS62 KGSP 142325
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
725 PM EDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Forecast adjusted for diminishing shower chances this evening.

The aviation discussion has been updated for the 00Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Temperatures warm closer to normal Wednesday, with afternoon
showers and thunderstorms confined to far western areas.
2. Hot conditions will return to the area Thursday and continue
into the weekend. Heat index values may return into the 100 to
105 degree range across the Piedmont Friday through Sunday. A cold
front will approach from the north and bring higher rain chances
over the weekend, and slightly cooler temperatures early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Temperatures warm closer to normal Wednesday, with
afternoon showers and thunderstorms confined to far western areas.

A few showers over the Upper Savannah River Valley this evening will
dissipate with the loss of heating.

Overnight, dry air will continue to work in and clear out clouds.
Sfc high pressure will settle over the area, allowing for light to
calm winds and decent radiational cooling. With moist BL from the
rainy weather last couple of days will support the development of
patchy fog and low stratus. Not expecting widespread dense fog. Lows
will be near normal.

The weak sfc high will remain over the area on Wednesday, shunting
deeper moisture to our west. A few diurnal showers and isolated
tstms will be possible in the far western NC mountains and NE GA
counties, but the rest of the area looks dry. Temps will return
to near normal under mostly sunny skies.


Key message 2: Hot conditions will return to the area Thursday
and continue into the weekend. Heat index values may return into
the 100 to 105 degree range across the Piedmont Friday through
Sunday. A cold front will approach from the north and bring higher
rain chances over the weekend, and slightly cooler temperatures
early next week.

An upper ridge will build across the region starting tomorrow and
linger through Friday. This will bring above-normal temperatures
and elevated heat and humidity. Heat index values may top out
over 100 degrees across the southern and eastern Piedmont each
day Thursday thru Saturday. Friday may be the hottest day, with
much of the Piedmont reaching 100+ peak heat index values, and
up to 105 across portions of the Charlotte area and the southern
Lakelands. A Heat Advisory may be needed for parts of the area,
if these trends hold. Heat will begin to abate slightly Sunday and
into early next week, as an upper trough digs across the eastern
CONUS and allows a cold front to slide into the area from the north.

PoPs will likely remain below seasonal normals Thursday and Friday
across the Piedmont, but with more typical coverage in the high
terrain. Then above-climo PoPs will be possible Saturday and Sunday
due to the influence of the approaching frontal boundary. Typical
pulse severe chances may return with this activity. Despite the
latest global models showing continued unsettled weather Monday,
the NBM has come in with lower PoPs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A few MVFR clouds floating around the SC
sites with SCT to BKN VFR clouds. The lower clouds will slowly
become FEW to SCT overnight, with clearing skies and KCLT and KHKY.
NE wind, N at KAVL, will become calm to light and variable
overnight. Expect IFR to LIFR in fog/stratus at KAVL by daybreak.
The SC sites and KHKY will see MVFR vsby and possibly IFR cigs. KCLT
should remain VFR. Generally cirrus with some VFR Cu Wednesday with
light SW wind, NNW at KAVL.

Outlook: Drier conditions continue into Thursday. Typical mid-July
coverage of diurnal convection is expected to return Friday and
continue thru the weekend. Low stratus and/or fog will be possible
each morning, mainly in the mtn valleys.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

ARK/RWH