681
FXUS62 KGSP 111033
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
633 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low will lift north along the Carolina coast through the
weekend. This system may bring rain to the North Carolina Piedmont
and eastern Upstate late Saturday through Sunday as it passes by to
our east. The low will continue to slowly track northeast along the
Mid-Atlantic Coast early next week, with dry high pressure and above
normal temperatures returning to the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 130 am Saturday: A cyclone is forecast to gradually deepen
and organize off the GA and SC coast through the period. The main
impact for our area during the near term will be persistent high
clouds, which will be especially thick across the eastern third or
so of the CWA, resulting in max temps again falling around 5 degrees
shy of normal in these areas, while near-normal highs are forecast
under thinner cloud cover across the west. In terms of precip
chances...while traditional operational deterministic model guidance
depicts a dry scenario for the forecast area through at least the
daylight hours, some convection-allowing guidance sweeps an outer
band of precip originating from the Coast across the southeast third
or so of the CWA this afternoon, squeezing out as much as 1/4 inch
of rain in those areas by the end of today. PoPs have been increased
in these areas a bit...mainly to a slight chance...but we may need
to entertain higher chances with later updates if more of a
consensus emerges in later guidance.

Otherwise, PoPs will increase across the east tonight, with 30-50%
chances of rain forecast across the eastern part of the Upstate
and the I-77 corridor after midnight. QPF will generally be in
the 0.10-0.25 in these areas. Min temps will be several degrees
above normal under mostly cloudy and continued breezy conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1147 PM Friday: A somewhat complex synoptic pattern will be
evolving by Sunday morning along the eastern seaboard. Starting
aloft, a northern stream closed upper low is forecast to be located
over New York state while a southern stream closed upper low is
progged to be centered in the vicinity of coastal Georgia. At the
surface, a coastal low is expected to reside somewhere along or just
off the Carolina coast, but guidance differs with placement of the
low. Some members also instigate a second area of surface
cyclogenesis off the Mid-Atlantic coast as broad height falls
continue to overspread a coastal baroclinic zone. The net result is
a complex forecast evolution involving multiple upper waves, surface
lows and a broad baroclinic zone. The overall consensus falls in
line with guidance trends that support a slightly farther west track
of the coastal low. The question at this point is how far west do
any showers make it on Sunday. The highest rain chances continue to
remain mainly along and west of the I-77 corridor, but several
wetter members of guidance paint measurable rain as far west as the
I-26 corridor. If these trends hold rain chances will need to be
increased on Sunday, but given sufficiently different solutions will
hold off on making large scale changes at this juncture. A tight
surface pressure gradient will also promote gusty winds through
Sunday. As for temperatures, locations under extensive cloud cover,
and especially expansive precipitation, will see highs below 70 with
mid to upper 70s over the western Upstate and northeast Georgia
where clouds will be thinner with lower rain chances.

By Monday, the synoptic pattern will begin to change as upper
ridging builds from the Southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley.
This will help push upper troughing off shore with the coastal low
also lifting towards New England and away from the area. This will
allow for notable airmass modification as cloud cover wanes with
highs returning to the low to upper 70s. Winds will also finally
become less gusty as the surface pressure gradient relaxes.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1208 AM Saturday: Heading into Tuesday and the remainder of
the work week, guidance is in relatively good agreement that upper
ridging will amplify over the Mississippi Valley while an upstream
trough digs over the Rockies with a second upper low dropping over
New England. The highest heights and warmest temperatures will
remain confined to our west, but at least some influence from the
upper ridge will dictate the forecast across the Southern
Appalachians. The airmass will continue to modify with afternoon
highs climbing back into the mid 70s to low 80s Tuesday and
Wednesday. A slight cooldown may return late week if a backdoor
front can drop into the area within broad northwest flow. Otherwise,
dry conditions will prevail with scant moisture available in the
column.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: VFR conditions are expected to continue at
the TAF sites through as least this evening, as this morning`s
fog/low stratus is expected to remain confined to the mountain
valleys west and north of KAVL. Moisture increasing from the east
later today will result in increasing chances for lower cloud
development, especially at KCLT, but these clouds will most likely
be VFR in the 040-060 range. Chances for precip will also gradually
increase near KCLT...mainly tonight. Some higher resolution guidance
suggests a band of precip associated with a coastal disturbance
may make a run toward the KCLT area this afternoon, but if
anything...these guidance sources have backed off of this scenario,
at least a little bit, so the precip mention is confined to a Prob30
for -RA at KCLT between 06-12Z. Lowering cigs are also expected
to accompany the increasing precip chances, with MVFR expected at
KCLT by 12Z Sunday. Otherwise, dry/VFR conditions are forecast at
the other TAF sites, except for a brief, token MVFR visby mention
at KAVL early Sunday. Winds will generally remain NE at around
10 kts through the period (lighter with vrbl direction at KAVL),
with some gusts of 15-20 kts expected, especially later today.

Outlook: Periodic restrictions will remain possible at KCLT (and
possibly KHKY) thru early Monday as sfc low pressure moves up the
Atlantic Coast. VFR conditions are expected to return on Monday
and persist thru at least the middle of next week.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TW
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...TW
LONG TERM...TW
AVIATION...JDL