511
FXUS62 KGSP 141023
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
623 AM EDT Fri Aug 14 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes to the forecast this morning.

Aviation forecast was updated to reflect the impending 12Z TAF
issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Heat Advisory still in effect for most of the Upstate and
Charlotte Metro area this afternoon. Hot and humid weather
continues through the weekend and into next week, with triple digit
heat index values expected over the low terrain each afternoon.
2. Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms develop each
afternoon through the weekend and into early next week. A couple
strong to severe storms, as well as isolated nuisance flooding,
will be possible each day.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Heat Advisory still in effect for most of the Upstate
and Charlotte Metro area this afternoon.  Hot and humid weather
continues through the weekend and into next week, with triple digit
heat index values expected over the low terrain each afternoon.

596dm anticyclone was analyzed over the LA/MS coast on recent water
vapor imagery this morning.  Expect stout upper ridging to remain
in place through most of the forecast period, driving anomalously
high temperatures.  Dewpoint mixing will keep afternoon mugginess at
bay, but will be limited by a lack of particularly dry air aloft;
heat index values each afternoon through Monday are forecast to
climb to 105 degrees are higher, with parts of the Savannah River
Valley and southern SC Upstate climbing as high as 110 degrees.

A Heat Advisory remains in effect for Friday for most of the SC
Upstate and the Charlotte Metro area, valid from noon through 8PM.
Additional products may very well be necessary over the weekend.


Key message 2: Scattered diurnal showers and thunderstorms develop
each afternoon through the weekend and into early next week.
A couple strong to severe storms, as well as isolated nuisance
flooding, will be possible each day.

Strong ridging over the central CONUS will continue to steer
organized MCS tracks into the Carolinas over the weekend, resulting
in scattered to widespread diurnal convection each afternoon.
Saturday in particular may feature the approach of a weak frontal
boundary from the north, further enhancing coverage (although the
boundary is forecast to stall to our north and pull away again
by Sunday) Saturday afternoon and evening.  As a consequence,
Saturday`s parameter space looks marginally better than the rest
of the weekend and early next week, with limited deep shear and
synoptic forcing on the southern periphery of a z500 speed max
streaming across the Mid-Atlantic.  So, expect a little better
severe risk on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry conditions everywhere this morning.
Expect dry conditions at all the TAF sites the first part of
today with VFR high cloud cover and a developing cu field into
early afternoon.  Still expect scattered afternoon showers and
convection over much of the area (excluding KAND, where hi-res
guidance is in good agreement that storms won`t make it).  WNW wind
continues through the period, and quiet conditions return after
sunset this evening.

Outlook: Scattered showers and thunderstorms possible each afternoon
with flight restrictions possible for low stratus and fog each
morning, especially in the mountain valleys.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     GAZ018-026-028-029.
NC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     NCZ070>072-082.
SC...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM EDT this evening for
     SCZ008>014-019-104>109.

&&

$$

MPR