194
FXUS62 KGSP 232320
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
720 PM EDT Sun Aug 23 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
The aviation forecast updated for the 00Z TAF issuance.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry weather with comfortable humidity levels through
Tuesday. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday
and continue through the rest of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Dry weather with comfortable humidity levels through
Tuesday. Daily shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday
and continue through the rest of the week.

Amplified upper pattern will persist over the CONUS through the
first half of this week, with deep anticyclone remaining centered
near New Mexico and closed low over the eastern periphery of the
Great Lakes. At the surface we will be on the cool side of a front
stalled in the I-20 corridor. Monday the pattern will support
northwest winds, advecting dry continental air into the region.
Profiles are unfavorable for deep convection with only shallow
cumulus expected. Cold advection will be offset by insolation and
downslope flow, such that daytime temperatures run near normal.
Afternoon mixing should maintain low dewpoints in the lower 60s or
even upper 50s. Overnight lows will be a few degrees below normal on
account of the lower dewpoints and good radiational cooling
conditions.

The upper pattern becomes less amplified over the area by Tuesday
as the closed low drifts further east and its influence over
the southern Appalachians diminishes. Broadly cyclonic flow will
remain over the eastern half of the CONUS. Most guidance shows
weak northerly winds at the surface, though winds aloft begin to
favor southwest in response to more influence of the Plains ridge,
and some moisture return aloft. In turn dewpoints rebound a bit
though still mainly in the lower to mid 60s, while temperatures
will remain near normal. This looks unlikely to have much impact on
convective chances; more models/ensemble members depict our whole
area remaining dry through Tuesday compared to yesterday`s runs.

Weak sfc high in the Midwest is expected to fill and drift east
by Wednesday; heights fall slightly aloft in the mid-MS Valley in
advance of the next shortwave rotating into the broad trough. These
changes effectively reactivate the front and bring it northward
into our area; dewpoints and temps rise and diurnal showers/storms
again appear possible. Interaction between the shortwave and the
front suggests a continuing chance of showers/storms overnight
into Thursday (when precip chances are greatest between now and
next weekend). Though there are indications the passage of that
shortwave may push the front back to our south and east at least
briefly, it appears unlikely airmass change will occur. Hence we
will remain seasonably hot and humid through the end of the period
with a chance for primarily diurnal convection each day.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Any lingering stratocu dissipates early this
evening leaving cirrus for the overnight. Expect another round of
mountain valley fog overnight with restrictions reaching KAVL. Some
cirrus lingers through the day with some high based VFR stratocu for
the afternoon. Winds become light N to NE this evening and continue
into the morning. Winds pick up from the W to NW for the afternoon.
NW with low end gusts at KAVL.

Outlook: No significant chance of convection until Wednesday with an
even better chance Thursday into Friday. Mountain valley fog and low
stratus is possible each morning.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

JCW/RWH