683
FXUS62 KGSP 031917
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
217 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Shower and thunderstorm chances have increased for early Friday
across the eastern half of our forecast area.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Unseasonably warm and humid conditions are expected for the
remainder of the week, with shower and thunderstorm chances
increasing Wednesday and lingering through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Unseasonably warm and humid conditions are expected
for the remainder of the week, with shower and thunderstorm chances
increasing Wednesday and lingering through Friday.

The upper level pattern across the CONUS will remain amplified and
not especially progressive through much of the week, with a fairly
short-lived omega block persisting over the next few days out west.
The center of an upper low is expected to lift from the Southern
Plains to the upper MS Valley by Wednesday morning, inducing gradual
height falls over the Eastern CONUS. An associated occluding/weakening
frontal zone is fcst to approach our CWA from the west on Wednesday.
Persistent SLY flow ahead of this feature will result in increasingly
warm and humid conditions over the next couple of days, with temps
expected to be at least 5 to 10 degrees above normal while sfc dewpts
are expected to reach the 60s by Wed aftn. The frontal zone should
have more than enough moisture along with some modest instability in
place as it moves into our area Wed aftn/evening. Short-term guidance
still shows fairly robust forcing, especially in the low levels as the
boundary crosses the TN Valley and the Deep South Wed aftn, but this
weakens as it moves into our area Wed evening. As a result, a notable
gradient in PoPs and especially QPF is anticipated from west to east,
with roughly 0.5 to 1.0" amounts currently fcst across our western
third (with locally higher amounts on south-facing slopes), and less
than 0.25" expected over the I-77 corridor. In addition, the combina-
tion of fairly weak shear and modest instability along with the occlu-
ding nature of the front are not favorable for an organized severe
storm threat. Regardless, a few strong-to-severe storms cannot be
ruled out. Locally heavy rain is possible across our western zones,
especially on aforementioned south-facing slopes, with a non-zero
chance of localized flash flooding Wed/Wed night.

Little temperature contrast is anticipated in the wake of the frontal
zone on Thursday, so conditions are expected to remain warm and humid.
Broad cyclonic flow aloft combined with terrain effects is likely to
result in some sct convection Thursday aftn/evening. By Thursday night,
a weakening upper low over the Southern Plains is fcst to move quickly
across the SE quadrant of the CONUS, with the associated height falls
bringing another cold front to our area, and possibly another round of
sct convection on Friday. At this time, most of the guidance has better
coverage/higher PoPs over our eastern zones. Saturday should be mostly
dry with temperatures remaining above normal and some amount of cooler/
drier air advecting into our area. By Sunday, temperatures and humidity
levels should return to near-normal for early Nov.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Sct to bkn MVFR clouds continue to make their
way northward over most of our fcst area early this afternoon. As
such, I kept TEMPOs for MVFR cigs at the Upstate terminals and KAVL
for the first few hrs of the period. By mid-afternoon, I expect the
lower clouds to sct out. A deeper surge of moisture moves into the
region tonight ahead of an advancing cold frontal boundary. This is
expected to produce a more widespread deck of low stratus with wide-
spread MVFR cigs anticipated along with periods of IFR cigs. The IFR
cigs were mostly handled with TEMPOs in the 10 to 14z window. Shower
chances begin to ramp up towards the end of the TAF period, with VCSH
carried at the Upstate sites and a PROB30 for -SHRA at KAVL beginning
earlier tomorrow. Otherwise, winds will be generally be out of the E
to ENE today and tonight becoming more light and VRB overnight. Winds
will eventually pick up out of the SE tomorrow afternoon with speeds
of 5 to 10 kts.

Outlook: Showers and associated flight restrictions are expected to
continue late Wednesday into Thursday as a front crosses the region.
Additional showers and restrictions are possible on Friday, with VFR
conditions returning for the weekend.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

JPT