402
FXUS62 KGSP 282320
AFDGSP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
720 PM EDT Wed Oct 28 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Updated for 00Z TAFs.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Dry through at least Saturday. Trending drier Sunday
through Tuesday so confidence on rain returning is now very
low. Temperatures remain mostly above normal, with the exception
of Sunday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key message 1: Dry through at least Saturday. Trending drier Sunday
through Tuesday so confidence on rain returning is now very low.
Temperatures remain mostly above normal, with the exception of
Sunday.

Main change this forecast update is that the 00Z Euro and Canadian
are trending dry Sunday through Tuesday, showing surface high
pressure remaining in place over the East Coast which would act to
shunt moisture south of the GSP forecast area. Meanwhile, the 12Z
GFS continues to show moisture returning as high pressure retreats
northeastward but is trending drier and slightly later than previous
runs. Thus, confidence on rain returning is now very low, especially
with the NBM trending lower for PoPs Sunday through Tuesday. Above
normal temperatures are expected through most of the period but near
normal to just below normal highs may return briefly Sunday as cold
air damming develops over the weekend. We should have another shot
at rain middle of next week as a low pressure system approaches out
of the west but guidance is all over the place in regards to timing
so NBM chance PoPs look good for now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Dry through this TAF period. Guidance has
returned to the idea of at least MVFR cigs developing overnight at
KCLT/KHKY. This looks likely given the VFR stratocu developing at
this time. IFR is possible but lower confidence, so just a SCT IFR
layer for now. Have kept it at SCT VFR stratocu for the SC sites
where chance is even lower, but not zero. Mountain valley fog looks
likely once again, even with the continued cirrus. Have limited KAVL
to MVFR for now, given recent trends there as opposed to the rest of
the valleys. Any restrictions at KAVL will dissipate by 14Z, but
KCLT/KHKY will linger until 16Z and possibly as late as 18Z. Low VFR
clouds gradually dissipate through the afternoon. NE wind continues
into the day Thursday for all but KAVL where light and variable to
light N wind continues. Winds turn light SE during the afternoon and
KAVL and light and variable elsewhere.

Outlook: Dry and VFR through at least Saturday. Mountain valley fog
and low stratus may develop each morning. Rain and associated
restrictions may return starting Sunday but confidence is now very
low with global weather models trending drier Sunday through Tuesday.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$

AR/RWH